IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·abenomics_monetary_fiscal_coordination_effect

Abenomics' combined monetary-fiscal expansion lifted Japanese inflation and output partially but failed to durably escape the deflation equilibrium, consistent with NK models of near-permanent ZLB traps.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/abenomics_monetary_fiscal_coordination_effect

SUPPORTED — shape=ITS, sign matches claim +, mean_gap=+6.836, z=+17

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether abenomics regime indicator is actually linked to better or worse cpi inflation yoy from 2008 to 2020.

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. shape=ITS, sign matches claim +, mean_gap=+6.836, z=+17

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2008 to 2020, using a event study design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Abenomics regime indicator
  • Boj balance sheet pct income
What we checked
  • Cpi inflation yoy
  • Real income growth
  • Inflation expectations breakeven
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/abenomics_monetary_fiscal_coordination_effect
1007550250200820142020JPN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show cpi_inflation_yoy across 1 sampled countries over 2008–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for abenomics_monetary_fiscal_coordination_effect. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/abenomics_monetary_fiscal_coordination_effect/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

New Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-05-16T11:53:08Z

Abenomics' combined monetary-fiscal expansion lifted Japanese inflation and output partially but failed to durably escape the deflation equilibrium, consistent with NK models of near-permanent ZLB traps.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if the preregistered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p < 0.05), or if the primary outcome measure does not move in the claimed direction.

formal test & threshold
test:      Single-country interrupted-time-series around the 2013 BoJ QQE/Abenomics regime shift; SUPPORTED if post-2013 inflation/output gaps are positive relative to the pre-2013 trend but remain below durable-escape magnitudes, REFUTED if gaps are negative or there is no partial lift.

Method

Template
event_study
Clustering
episode
Sample
1 countries · 2008 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Stub-level estimator pin for runnability audit. Treatment is the Abenomics regime change (Apr-2013 BoJ QQE + fiscal package); event-study around the announcement/implementation window for inflation, output, and inflation-expectations responses. Falsification rule and variables block remain to be filled when this stub is promoted from draft. Event-year marker retained from legacy schema repair: 2013.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
cpi_inflation_yoy
outcome
boj:CPItier 1
fred:JPNCPIALLMINMEItier 1
pct_change_yoy
real_gdp_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
imf:NGDP_RPCHtier 2
pct_change_yoy
inflation_expectations_breakeven
outcome
boj:inflation_expectations_household_surveytier 1
level_pct
abenomics_regime_indicator
treatment
constructed:binary = 1 from 2013-04 (BoJ QQE launch under Kuroda)tier 5
binary
boj_balance_sheet_pct_gdp
treatment
boj:money_stock_m2tier 1
fred:JPNASSETStier 1
level_pct_gdp
usd_jpy_exchange_rate
control
fred:DEXJPUStier 1
log_diff
oil_price_brent
control
imf_pcps:POILBREtier 1
log_diff

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — abenomics_monetary_fiscal_coordination_effect

Verdict: SUPPORTED — shape=ITS, sign matches claim +, mean_gap=+6.836, z=+17

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Abenomics' combined monetary-fiscal expansion lifted Japanese inflation and output partially but failed to durably escape the deflation equilibrium, consistent with NK models of near-permanent ZLB traps.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if the preregistered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p < 0.05), or if the primary outcome measure does not move in the claimed direction.
  • Falsification test: Single-country interrupted-time-series around the 2013 BoJ QQE/Abenomics regime shift; SUPPORTED if post-2013 inflation/output gaps are positive relative to the pre-2013 trend but remain below durable-escape magnitudes, REFUTED if gaps are negative or there is no partial lift.
  • Event year: 2013

Estimate

  • shape: single_country_its
  • country: JPN
  • event_year: 2013
  • n_pre: 5
  • n_post: 8
  • pre_trend_slope: -0.566726416666677
  • pre_trend_intercept: 1236.0879436666874
  • pre_residual_sd: 0.4056965144122899
  • end_year: 2020
  • end_year_actual: 101.79860000000001
  • end_year_counterfactual: 91.30058199999985
  • end_year_gap: 10.498018000000158
  • mean_post_gap: 6.8357204375001395
  • z_end: 25.876529935703434
  • z_mean: 16.849344755654776
  • post_period_years: [2013, 2020]

Variables resolved

  • boj:CPI; fred:JPNCPIALLMINMEI → cpi_inflation_yoy (outcome, publisher=fred, n=67)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG; imf:NGDP_RPCH → real_gdp_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • constructed: binary = 1 from 2013-04 (BoJ QQE launch under Kuroda) → abenomics_regime_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=13)
  • boj:money_stock_m2; fred:JPNASSETS → boj_balance_sheet_pct_gdp (treatment, publisher=fred, n=29)
  • fred:DEXJPUS → usd_jpy_exchange_rate (controls, publisher=fred, n=56)
  • imf_pcps:POILBRE → oil_price_brent (controls, publisher=imf_pcps, n=37)

Variables missing data

  • boj:inflation_expectations_household_survey (outcome, name=inflation_expectations_breakeven)

Generated by scripts/run_event_study.py at 2026-05-16T11:53:08+00:00

Notes

Stub seeded from a New-Keynesian school prediction about Abenomics partial-success/ZLB-trap. Distinguishing partial lift from durable escape is delicate; needs human review of long-run inflation-expectations metric.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.