IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·abenomics_monetary_policy_demand_effect

Abenomics 2012-2020 produced weaker inflation response than orthodox monetary-policy models predicted, vindicating post-Keynesian view that monetary policy alone cannot lift effective demand at zero lower bound.

REFUTEDengine/runs/abenomics_monetary_policy_demand_effect

REFUTED — shape=ITS, sign + OPPOSITE claim -, mean_gap=+7.485, z=+25

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether qqe regime indicator is actually linked to better or worse cpi inflation yoy from 2008 to 2020.

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. shape=ITS, sign + OPPOSITE claim -, mean_gap=+7.485, z=+25

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2008 to 2020, using a event study design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Qqe regime indicator
  • Boj monetary base
What we checked
  • Cpi inflation yoy
  • Cpi ex food energy yoy
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/abenomics_monetary_policy_demand_effect
1007550250200820142020JPN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show cpi_inflation_yoy across 1 sampled countries over 2008–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for abenomics_monetary_policy_demand_effect. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/abenomics_monetary_policy_demand_effect/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Post-Keynesianwins if SUPPORTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-05-17T17:11:37Z

Abenomics 2012-2020 produced weaker inflation response than orthodox monetary-policy models predicted, vindicating post-Keynesian view that monetary policy alone cannot lift effective demand at zero lower bound.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if the post-QQE CPI path rises in the orthodox-policy direction rather than falling more than 50% short of the benchmark response. It is partial if inflation remains weak but the benchmark path or tax-shock controls are incomplete.

formal test & threshold
test:      Event study on Japanese CPI horizons h=1..24 months around April 2013 BoJ QQE; supported if realised CPI response falls >50% short of orthodox-model implied path at p<0.10.

Method

Template
event_study
Clustering
episode
Sample
1 countries · 2008 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Event-study around the Apr-2013 BoJ QQE launch testing whether realised CPI response at horizons h = 1..24 months falls short of the path implied by orthodox monetary transmission models.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
cpi_inflation_yoy
outcome
boj:CPItier 1
fred:JPNCPIALLMINMEItier 1
pct_change_yoy
cpi_ex_food_energy_yoy
outcome
boj:CPItier 1
fred:JPNCPIALLMINMEItier 1
pct_change_yoy
qqe_regime_indicator
treatment
constructed:binary = 1 from 2013-04 (Kuroda QQE launch)tier 5
binary
boj_monetary_base
treatment
boj:money_stock_m2tier 1
fred:BOGMBASE_JPNtier 1
log_diff
output_gap
control
oecd:OutputGaptier 2
level_pct
usd_jpy_exchange_rate
control
fred:DEXJPUStier 1
log_diff
oil_price_brent
control
imf_pcps:POILBREtier 1
log_diff

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — abenomics_monetary_policy_demand_effect

Verdict: REFUTED — shape=ITS, sign + OPPOSITE claim -, mean_gap=+7.485, z=+25

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Abenomics 2012-2020 produced weaker inflation response than orthodox monetary-policy models predicted, vindicating post-Keynesian view that monetary policy alone cannot lift effective demand at zero lower bound.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: Event study on Japanese CPI horizons h=1..24 months around April 2013 BoJ QQE; supported if realised CPI response falls >50% short of orthodox-model implied path at p<0.10.
  • Event year: 2012

Estimate

  • shape: single_country_its
  • country: JPN
  • event_year: 2012
  • n_pre: 4
  • n_post: 9
  • pre_trend_slope: -0.7618568333333977
  • pre_trend_intercept: 1628.104950750129
  • pre_residual_sd: 0.3041928402291432
  • end_year: 2020
  • end_year_actual: 101.79860000000001
  • end_year_counterfactual: 89.15414741666564
  • end_year_gap: 12.64445258333437
  • mean_post_gap: 7.485471175926621
  • z_end: 41.567226151047876
  • z_mean: 24.607650759590346
  • post_period_years: [2012, 2020]

Variables resolved

  • boj:CPI; fred:JPNCPIALLMINMEI → cpi_inflation_yoy (outcome, publisher=fred, n=67)
  • boj:CPI; fred:JPNCPIALLMINMEI → cpi_ex_food_energy_yoy (outcome, publisher=fred, n=67)
  • constructed: binary = 1 from 2013-04 (Kuroda QQE launch) → qqe_regime_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=13)
  • oecd:OutputGap → output_gap (controls, publisher=oecd, n=3331)
  • fred:DEXJPUS → usd_jpy_exchange_rate (controls, publisher=fred, n=56)
  • imf_pcps:POILBRE → oil_price_brent (controls, publisher=imf_pcps, n=37)

Variables missing data

  • boj:money_stock_m2; fred:BOGMBASE_JPN (treatment, name=boj_monetary_base)

Generated by scripts/run_event_study.py at 2026-05-17T17:11:37+00:00

Notes

Stub seeded from a Post-Keynesian school prediction about Abenomics weak inflation pass-through. Mirror of NK hypothesis above; needs human review on what "orthodox monetary models" baseline means.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.