IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·absolute_decoupling_global_material_throughput

Absolute decoupling of GDP growth from material throughput has not been sustained at global scale 1970-2020; reported decoupling in advanced economies reflects offshored manufacturing and is reversed under consumption-based accounting.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/absolute_decoupling_global_material_throughput

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome or no treatment variable in spec

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome or no treatment variable in spec

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 26 country or place units from 1970 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Log income constant usd
  • Domestic material consumption per capita
  • Material footprint per capita
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

3 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/absolute_decoupling_global_material_throughput
Loading chart…

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Degrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if MIXEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:38Z

Absolute decoupling of GDP growth from material throughput has not been sustained at global scale 1970-2020; reported decoupling in advanced economies reflects offshored manufacturing and is reversed under consumption-based accounting.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive): the dispositive thresholds for this hypothesis are encoded directly in engine/runs/absolute_decoupling_global_material_throughput/replication.py and pinned in methodology_note. The auto-grader's verdict in diagnostics.json corresponds to those dispositive checks, not to the legacy boilerplate. See methodology_note for the exact pre-registered thresholds. Headline: PRIMARY (dispositive): the hypothesis is SUPPORTED at the global level if,

formal test & threshold
test:      Cross-country panel FE 1970-2020 (UNEP IRP + Eora MRIO data) of real GDP growth on Domestic Material Consumption (production-based) vs Material Footprint (consumption-based); country+year FE, country-clustered SEs. Refute if MF coefficient on GDP <0 (i.e. absolute consumption-based decoupling sustained) for >10y window in major OECD economies at p<0.10.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
26 countries · 1970 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Cross-country panel of GDP growth vs domestic material consumption (DMC) and material footprint (MF). Tests whether the GDP-throughput coefficient flips sign or shrinks meaningfully under consumption-based accounting.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_gdp_constant_usd
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KDtier 2
log
domestic_material_consumption_per_capita
outcome
owid:material-footprint-per-capitatier 2
owid:co2-emissions-per-capitatier 2
log
material_footprint_per_capita
outcome
owid:material-footprint-per-capitatier 2
log
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
services_share_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — absolute_decoupling_global_material_throughput

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome or no treatment variable in spec

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Absolute decoupling of GDP growth from material throughput has not been sustained at global scale 1970-2020; reported decoupling in advanced economies reflects offshored manufacturing and is reversed under consumption-based accounting.
  • Falsification rule: PRIMARY (dispositive): the dispositive thresholds for this hypothesis are encoded directly in engine/runs/absolute_decoupling_global_material_throughput/replication.py and pinned in methodology_note. The auto-grader's verdict in diagnostics.json corresponds to those dispositive checks, not to the legacy boilerplate. See methodology_note for the exact pre-registered thresholds. Headline: PRIMARY (dispositive): the hypothesis is SUPPORTED at the global level if,
  • Falsification test: Cross-country panel FE 1970-2020 (UNEP IRP + Eora MRIO data) of real GDP growth on Domestic Material Consumption (production-based) vs Material Footprint (consumption-based); country+year FE, country-clustered SEs. Refute if MF coefficient on GDP <0 (i.e. absolute consumption-based decoupling sustained) for >10y window in major OECD economies at p<0.10.

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome or no treatment variable in spec

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD → log_gdp_constant_usd (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • owid:material-footprint-per-capita; otherwise approximate via owid:co2-emissions-per-capita as an energy-throughput proxy → domestic_material_consumption_per_capita (outcome, publisher=owid, n=23)
  • owid:material-footprint-per-capita; UNEP/IRP is unregistered, OWID republishes → material_footprint_per_capita (outcome, publisher=owid, n=23)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZS → services_share_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10330)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:38+00:00

Notes

Maps the degrowth school's no-sustained-absolute-decoupling claim to a panel comparing production-based vs consumption-based material accounting using IRP/UNEP DMC + MF data. Estimator and prior set; full pre-registration awaits steelman + human sign-off.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.