IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·africa_ethiopia_tigray_war_economic_collapse_2020_2022

The November 2020 - November 2022 Ethiopia-Tigray war produced a sharp economic contraction in Ethiopia visible in real GDP growth deceleration, FX-reserve depletion, birr depreciation, sovereign-spread widening, and humanitarian-aid-distortion of the external accounts.

The pre-registered claim is that, in a synthetic-control design with East African / SSA developmental peers (Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Uganda, Mozambique), Ethiopia's cumulative real-GDP growth 2020-2023 falls at least 5 log-points below the synthetic counterfactual AND the birr-USD official rate depreciates by at least 50% more than counterfactual over the war window. The null counter-claim is that, given Ethiopia's pre-war growth trajectory was already decelerating and the COVID confound is severe, the war effect is not statistically separable from the parallel shocks.

PARTIALengine/runs/africa_ethiopia_tigray_war_economic_collapse_2020_2022

PARTIAL — mean_gap=+8.996e+10, |gap|/pre_sd=5.5, p_perm=0.167 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=+8.996e+10, |gap|/pre_sd=5.5, p_perm=0.167 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 6 country or place units from 2010 to 2024, using a synth did design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Tigray war indicator
  • Conflict intensity
What we checked
  • Real income
  • Real income pc
  • Birr usd official
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/africa_ethiopia_tigray_war_economic_collapse_2020_2022
1007550250201020172024ETHKENTZARWAUGAMOZ
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp across 6 sampled countries over 2010–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for africa_ethiopia_tigray_war_economic_collapse_2020_2022. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/africa_ethiopia_tigray_war_economic_collapse_2020_2022/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

New Institutional Economicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callSocial Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:15:29Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

The November 2020 - November 2022 Ethiopia-Tigray war produced a sharp economic contraction in Ethiopia visible in real GDP growth deceleration, FX-reserve depletion, birr depreciation, sovereign-spread widening, and humanitarian-aid-distortion of the external accounts. The pre-registered claim is that, in a synthetic-control design with East African / SSA developmental peers (Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Uganda, Mozambique), Ethiopia's cumulative real-GDP growth 2020-2023 falls at least 5 log-points below the synthetic counterfactual AND the birr-USD official rate depreciates by at least 50% more than counterfactual over the war window. The null counter-claim is that, given Ethiopia's pre-war growth trajectory was already decelerating and the COVID confound is severe, the war effect is not statistically separable from the parallel shocks.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if EITHER (a) cumulative real-GDP gap 2020Q4-2023Q4 versus synthetic counterfactual is less than -5 log-points at p_perm < 0.10, OR (b) the birr depreciation gap is less than 50%, OR (c) the conflict-intensity coefficient on GDP loses statistical significance in the panel-FE specification (indicating war intensity is not the mediator).

formal test & threshold
test:      synth_did_dual_outcome_with_intensity_panel
threshold: cumulative_log_gdp_gap_2020Q4_2023Q4 <= -0.05 at p_perm < 0.10 AND log_birr_gap_peak <= -0.50 (more depreciation than counterfactual) AND conflict_intensity_panel_coef on log_gdp significant at p < 0.05

Method

Template
synth_did
Clustering
country
Sample
6 countries · 2010 – 2024
Evidence type
causal

Primary: synth_did with ETH treated 2020-Q4 through 2022-Q4 and SSA donor pool. Secondary: panel FE with conflict-intensity interacted with year dummies. Robustness runs the test ending at 2022Q4 (war end) and extending through 2023 (post-war recovery). Permutation inference on 5-unit donor pool.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KDtier 2
pwt:rgdpetier 3
log_level
real_gdp_pc
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log_level
birr_usd_official
outcome
world_bank_wdi:PA.NUS.FCRFtier 2
log_level
fx_reserves_usd
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FI.RES.TOTL.CDtier 2
imf:RAFA_USDtier 2
log_level
cpi_inflation_yoy
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
imf:PCPIPCHtier 2
yoy
tigray_war_indicator
treatment
constructed:1 for ETH from 2020-11 through 2022-11tier 5
binary
conflict_intensity
treatment
owid:battle_deathstier 2
world_bank_wdi:VC.BTL.DETHtier 2
log_level
oil_price
control
fred:DCOILBRENTEUtier 1
log_level
us_policy_rate
control
fred:FEDFUNDStier 1
level
terms_of_trade
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
level
official_dev_assistance_received
control
world_bank_wdi:DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — africa_ethiopia_tigray_war_economic_collapse_2020_2022

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=+8.996e+10, |gap|/pre_sd=5.5, p_perm=0.167 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The November 2020 - November 2022 Ethiopia-Tigray war produced a sharp economic contraction in Ethiopia visible in real GDP growth deceleration, FX-reserve depletion, birr depreciation, sovereign-spread widening, and humanitarian-aid-distortion of the external accounts. The pre-registered claim is that, in a synthetic-control design with East African / SSA developmental peers (Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Uganda, Mozambique), Ethiopia's cumulative real-GDP growth 2020-2023 falls at least 5 log-points below the synthetic counterfactual AND the birr-USD official rate depreciates by at least 50% more than counterfactual over the war window. The null counter-claim is that, given Ethiopia's pre-war growth trajectory was already decelerating and the COVID confound is severe, the war effect is not statistically separable from the parallel shocks.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if EITHER (a) cumulative real-GDP gap 2020Q4-2023Q4 versus synthetic counterfactual is less than -5 log-points at p_perm < 0.10, OR (b) the birr depreciation gap is less than 50%, OR (c) the conflict-intensity coefficient on GDP loses statistical significance in the panel-FE specification (indicating war intensity is not the mediator).

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: ETH
  • event_year: 2020
  • n_donors: 5
  • donor_weights (top): {'RWA': 1.0, 'KEN': 0.0, 'TZA': 0.0, 'UGA': 0.0, 'MOZ': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 53951825357.008965
  • pre_period_sd: 16370965816.25185
  • mean_post_gap: 89957285809.46921
  • end_period_gap: 101408392684.4574
  • post_period_years: [2020, 2024]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.16666666666666666
  • n_placebos: 5
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD; imf:NGDP_R; pwt:rgdpe → real_gdp (outcome, n=14131)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → real_gdp_pc (outcome, n=14131)
  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG; imf:PCPIPCH → cpi_inflation_yoy (outcome, n=9066)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T10:15:29+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Data-gated on NBE quarterly indicators (partial 2020-2022 disclosure due to war). IMF Article IV staff estimates are the most reliable continuous series. The Pretoria Agreement (November 2022) ends the active war; post-war recovery measurement is a separate research question deferred to a later hypothesis.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.