IESET.
Hypotheses·fiscal·africa_ghana_imf_program_2022_debt_distress

Ghana's December 2022 IMF Extended Credit Facility programme, paired with the December 2022 domestic-debt-exchange (DDEP) and 2023 external-debt restructuring, produced a measurable but partial macro-stabilisation: cedi depreciation slowed, inflation decelerated from a peak above 50% YoY, and primary fiscal balance moved toward surplus.

The pre-registered claim is that, in a synthetic-control design with a Sub-Saharan African low-income IMF-programme donor pool (Zambia, Kenya, Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon), Ghana's CPI inflation declines by at least 25 percentage points from peak to 2025Q4 AND the primary fiscal balance improves by at least 4 percentage points of GDP relative to the synthetic counterfactual. The null counter-claim is that Ghana's stabilisation is statistically indistinguishable from the SSA-IMF-programme donor-pool path once global commodity-price and DSSI conditions are netted out.

PARTIALengine/runs/africa_ghana_imf_program_2022_debt_distress

PARTIAL — mean_gap=+0.3876, |gap|/pre_sd=1.4, p_perm=0.2; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=+0.3876, |gap|/pre_sd=1.4, p_perm=0.2; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

This matters because fiscal claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 6 country or place units from 2014 to 2026, using a synth did design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Ecf program indicator
What we checked
  • Cpi inflation yoy
  • Primary fiscal balance share income
  • Gross public debt share income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/africa_ghana_imf_program_2022_debt_distress
1007550250201420202026GHAZMBKENSENCIVCMR
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show cpi_inflation_yoy across 6 sampled countries over 2014–2026.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for africa_ghana_imf_program_2022_debt_distress. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/africa_ghana_imf_program_2022_debt_distress/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:15:29Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Ghana's December 2022 IMF Extended Credit Facility programme, paired with the December 2022 domestic-debt-exchange (DDEP) and 2023 external-debt restructuring, produced a measurable but partial macro-stabilisation: cedi depreciation slowed, inflation decelerated from a peak above 50% YoY, and primary fiscal balance moved toward surplus. The pre-registered claim is that, in a synthetic-control design with a Sub-Saharan African low-income IMF-programme donor pool (Zambia, Kenya, Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon), Ghana's CPI inflation declines by at least 25 percentage points from peak to 2025Q4 AND the primary fiscal balance improves by at least 4 percentage points of GDP relative to the synthetic counterfactual. The null counter-claim is that Ghana's stabilisation is statistically indistinguishable from the SSA-IMF-programme donor-pool path once global commodity-price and DSSI conditions are netted out.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if EITHER (a) Ghana's CPI inflation decline from 2022 peak to 2025Q4 is less than 25 ppts (i.e. inflation remains stuck above 25%), OR (b) the synth-DiD CATT on primary fiscal balance over 2023Q1-2025Q4 is less than +4 ppts of GDP at p_perm < 0.10, OR (c) the cedi-USD rate continues to depreciate at more than 15% per annum through 2025 (indicating the FX stabilisation channel failed).

formal test & threshold
test:      synth_did_with_inflation_disinflation_threshold
threshold: inflation_peak_2022 - inflation_2025Q4 >= 25 ppts AND CATT_2023Q1_2025Q4(primary_balance) >= 4 ppts at p_perm < 0.10 AND cedi_depreciation_2024_2025_annualised <= 0.15

Method

Template
synth_did
Clustering
country
Sample
6 countries · 2014 – 2026
Evidence type
causal

Primary: synth_did with GHA treated from 2022Q4 and SSA IMF-programme donor pool. Secondary: Callaway-Sant'Anna DiD with never-treated SSA peers. Robustness drops Zambia (parallel default trajectory) and re-runs with 4-unit donor pool. Inflation decline test uses peak-to-trough comparison; primary balance test uses pre/post average levels.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
cpi_inflation_yoy
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
imf:PCPIPCHtier 2
yoy
primary_fiscal_balance_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:GC.NLD.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2
level
gross_public_debt_share_gdp
outcome
imf:GGXWDG_NGDPtier 2
world_bank_wdi:GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2
level
cedi_usd_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:PA.NUS.FCRFtier 2
log_level
ecf_program_indicator
treatment
constructed:1 for GHA from 2022Q4 onwardtier 5
binary
brent_oil_price
control
fred:DCOILBRENTEUtier 1
log_level
cocoa_price
control
fred:PCOCOUSDMtier 1
imf:PCOCOtier 2
log_level
gold_price
control
fred:GOLDAMGBD228NLBMtier 1
log_level
us_policy_rate
control
fred:FEDFUNDStier 1
level
terms_of_trade
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — africa_ghana_imf_program_2022_debt_distress

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=+0.3876, |gap|/pre_sd=1.4, p_perm=0.2; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Ghana's December 2022 IMF Extended Credit Facility programme, paired with the December 2022 domestic-debt-exchange (DDEP) and 2023 external-debt restructuring, produced a measurable but partial macro-stabilisation: cedi depreciation slowed, inflation decelerated from a peak above 50% YoY, and primary fiscal balance moved toward surplus. The pre-registered claim is that, in a synthetic-control design with a Sub-Saharan African low-income IMF-programme donor pool (Zambia, Kenya, Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon), Ghana's CPI inflation declines by at least 25 percentage points from peak to 2025Q4 AND the primary fiscal balance improves by at least 4 percentage points of GDP relative to the synthetic counterfactual. The null counter-claim is that Ghana's stabilisation is statistically indistinguishable from the SSA-IMF-programme donor-pool path once global commodity-price and DSSI conditions are netted out.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if EITHER (a) Ghana's CPI inflation decline from 2022 peak to 2025Q4 is less than 25 ppts (i.e. inflation remains stuck above 25%), OR (b) the synth-DiD CATT on primary fiscal balance over 2023Q1-2025Q4 is less than +4 ppts of GDP at p_perm < 0.10, OR (c) the cedi-USD rate continues to depreciate at more than 15% per annum through 2025 (indicating the FX stabilisation channel failed).

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: GHA
  • event_year: 2022
  • n_donors: 4
  • donor_weights (top): {'KEN': 0.6653, 'ZMB': 0.3347, 'CIV': 0.0, 'CMR': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 0.15432239474623025
  • pre_period_sd: 0.2756342878806045
  • mean_post_gap: 0.38759460155835707
  • end_period_gap: -0.2621780632004769
  • post_period_years: [2022, 2024]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.2
  • n_placebos: 4
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG; imf:PCPIPCH → cpi_inflation_yoy (outcome, n=9066)
  • imf:GGXWDG_NGDP; world_bank_wdi:GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZS → gross_public_debt_share_gdp (outcome, n=8113)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T10:15:29+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Data-gated on BoG monthly inflation, MoF quarterly fiscal data, and IMF Article IV reports. The DDEP design is unique in SSA history (domestic-debt restructuring without external default at the time); the synthetic-control donor pool cannot match this exactly, which is a recognised limitation of the design.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.