IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·africa_mauritius_export_zone_model_1980_2024

Mauritius's 1970-launched Export Processing Zone, sequenced upper-middle-income transition through textiles → tourism → financial services, and post-2000 services-export diversification produced a sustained convergence pattern that distinguishes it from SSA peers.

The pre-registered claim is that, in a synthetic-control design with island / small-economy / SSA-peer donor pool (Madagascar, Seychelles, Cabo Verde, Kenya, Tunisia), Mauritius's cumulative real-GDP-pc growth 1980-2024 exceeds the synthetic counterfactual by at least 80 log-points AND services-export share of total exports rises by at least 30 percentage points more than counterfactual. The null counter-claim is that Mauritius's performance is geography- and small-economy-specific (offshore-financial-centre rents) rather than EPZ-replicable industrial policy.

PARTIALengine/runs/africa_mauritius_export_zone_model_1980_2024

PARTIAL — mean_gap=-5657, |gap|/pre_sd=5.4, p_perm=0.4; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=-5657, |gap|/pre_sd=5.4, p_perm=0.4; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 6 country or place units from 1975 to 2024, using a synth did design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Epz indicator
What we checked
  • Real income pc
  • Services export share
  • Manufacturing share income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/africa_mauritius_export_zone_model_1980_2024
1007550250197520002024MUSMDGSYCCPVKENTUN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_pc across 6 sampled countries over 1975–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for africa_mauritius_export_zone_model_1980_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/africa_mauritius_export_zone_model_1980_2024/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-05-15T20:30:44Z

Mauritius's 1970-launched Export Processing Zone, sequenced upper-middle-income transition through textiles → tourism → financial services, and post-2000 services-export diversification produced a sustained convergence pattern that distinguishes it from SSA peers. The pre-registered claim is that, in a synthetic-control design with island / small-economy / SSA-peer donor pool (Madagascar, Seychelles, Cabo Verde, Kenya, Tunisia), Mauritius's cumulative real-GDP-pc growth 1980-2024 exceeds the synthetic counterfactual by at least 80 log-points AND services-export share of total exports rises by at least 30 percentage points more than counterfactual. The null counter-claim is that Mauritius's performance is geography- and small-economy-specific (offshore-financial-centre rents) rather than EPZ-replicable industrial policy.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if EITHER (a) cumulative log-GDP-pc gap 1980-2024 vs synthetic counterfactual is less than +0.80 at p_perm < 0.10, OR (b) services-export share gap is less than +30 ppts, OR (c) the Madagascar / Cabo Verde donor units (which received similar AGOA/preferential trade access) close most of the trajectory gap by 2024 — indicating preferential trade access rather than the Mauritian policy bundle is the load-bearing channel.

formal test & threshold
test:      synth_did_with_donor_substitution_check
threshold: cumulative_log_gdp_pc_gap >= 0.80 at p_perm < 0.10 AND services_export_share_gap >= 30 ppts AND Madagascar_CPV_residual_gap_2024 >= 0.30 (i.e. preferential-trade-access peers don't fully close the gap)

Method

Template
synth_did
Clustering
country
Sample
6 countries · 1975 – 2024
Evidence type
causal

Primary: synth_did with MUS treated from 1980. Secondary: panel FE with sequenced treatment dummies (EPZ 1970-2005, AGOA 2000+, services-export pivot 2005+). Tertiary: cumulative log-GDP-pc gap reporting at 1990, 2000, 2010, 2024 to show the growth-trajectory shape.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_pc
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
pwt:rgdpetier 3
maddison:mpd2020tier 3
log_level
services_export_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.SERV.CD.WTtier 2
level
manufacturing_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZStier 2
level
fdi_inflow_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZStier 2
unctad:Worldtier 2
level
epz_indicator
treatment
constructed:1 for MUS from 1980 onwardtier 5
binary
terms_of_trade
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
level
us_policy_rate
control
fred:FEDFUNDStier 1
level
oil_price
control
fred:DCOILBRENTEUtier 1
log_level
wgi_govt_effectiveness
control
wgi:GOV_WGI_GE.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — africa_mauritius_export_zone_model_1980_2024

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=-5657, |gap|/pre_sd=5.4, p_perm=0.4; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Mauritius's 1970-launched Export Processing Zone, sequenced upper-middle-income transition through textiles → tourism → financial services, and post-2000 services-export diversification produced a sustained convergence pattern that distinguishes it from SSA peers. The pre-registered claim is that, in a synthetic-control design with island / small-economy / SSA-peer donor pool (Madagascar, Seychelles, Cabo Verde, Kenya, Tunisia), Mauritius's cumulative real-GDP-pc growth 1980-2024 exceeds the synthetic counterfactual by at least 80 log-points AND services-export share of total exports rises by at least 30 percentage points more than counterfactual. The null counter-claim is that Mauritius's performance is geography- and small-economy-specific (offshore-financial-centre rents) rather than EPZ-replicable industrial policy.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if EITHER (a) cumulative log-GDP-pc gap 1980-2024 vs synthetic counterfactual is less than +0.80 at p_perm < 0.10, OR (b) services-export share gap is less than +30 ppts, OR (c) the Madagascar / Cabo Verde donor units (which received similar AGOA/preferential trade access) close most of the trajectory gap by 2024 — indicating preferential trade access rather than the Mauritian policy bundle is the load-bearing channel.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: MUS
  • event_year: 2000
  • n_donors: 4
  • donor_weights (top): {'SYC': 1.0, 'MDG': 0.0, 'KEN': 0.0, 'TUN': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 4565.5204049253425
  • pre_period_sd: 1040.0008121532155
  • mean_post_gap: -5656.773327231693
  • end_period_gap: -4651.636586521099
  • post_period_years: [2000, 2024]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.4
  • n_placebos: 4
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD; pwt:rgdpe; maddison:mpd2020 → real_gdp_pc (outcome, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.SERV.CD.WT → services_export_share (outcome, n=9520)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZS → manufacturing_share_gdp (outcome, n=9698)
  • world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS; unctad:World → fdi_inflow_share_gdp (outcome, n=11580)
  • constructed: 1 for MUS from 1980 onward → epz_indicator (treatment, n=300)
  • world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WD → terms_of_trade (controls, n=6478)
  • fred:FEDFUNDS → us_policy_rate (controls, n=438)
  • fred:DCOILBRENTEU → oil_price (controls, n=240)
  • wgi:GOV_WGI_GE.EST → wgi_govt_effectiveness (controls, n=5168)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-05-15T20:30:44+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Data-gated on Statistics Mauritius long-run series, Maddison historical data, WDI/PWT modern series. The hypothesis is structured to allow the "preferential trade access drives the gap" alternative to win if the donor-substitution residual closes.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.