IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·africa_rwanda_post_genocide_growth_model_1995_2024

Rwanda's post-1995 reconstruction trajectory under the RPF/Kagame government produced a multi-decade growth premium versus Sub-Saharan African peers, accompanied by sharp improvements in life expectancy, child mortality, and electrification, and a comparatively idiosyncratic civil-liberties regression captured in V-Dem and Freedom House.

The pre-registered claim is that, in a synthetic-control design with SSA peers (Burundi, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia, Mozambique), Rwanda's cumulative real- GDP-pc growth 1995-2024 exceeds the synthetic counterfactual by at least 50% AND under- five mortality declines by at least 30 deaths per 1000 more than counterfactual. The null counter-claim is that Rwanda's gains, while large in absolute terms, are consistent with post-conflict catch-up dynamics generally and not a regime-specific premium attributable to RPF developmental governance.

PARTIALengine/runs/africa_rwanda_post_genocide_growth_model_1995_2024

PARTIAL — mean_gap=+330.7, |gap|/pre_sd=4.4, p_perm=0.571 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=+330.7, |gap|/pre_sd=4.4, p_perm=0.571 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 1990 to 2024, using a synth did design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Rpf governance indicator
What we checked
  • Real income pc
  • Under five mortality
  • Life expectancy
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/africa_rwanda_post_genocide_growth_model_1995_2024
1007550250199020072024RWABDIUGATZAKENETHMOZ
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_pc across 7 sampled countries over 1990–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for africa_rwanda_post_genocide_growth_model_1995_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/africa_rwanda_post_genocide_growth_model_1995_2024/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

New Institutional Economicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callSocial Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-15T20:30:45Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Rwanda's post-1995 reconstruction trajectory under the RPF/Kagame government produced a multi-decade growth premium versus Sub-Saharan African peers, accompanied by sharp improvements in life expectancy, child mortality, and electrification, and a comparatively idiosyncratic civil-liberties regression captured in V-Dem and Freedom House. The pre-registered claim is that, in a synthetic-control design with SSA peers (Burundi, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia, Mozambique), Rwanda's cumulative real- GDP-pc growth 1995-2024 exceeds the synthetic counterfactual by at least 50% AND under- five mortality declines by at least 30 deaths per 1000 more than counterfactual. The null counter-claim is that Rwanda's gains, while large in absolute terms, are consistent with post-conflict catch-up dynamics generally and not a regime-specific premium attributable to RPF developmental governance.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if EITHER (a) cumulative log-GDP-pc gap 1995-2024 vs synthetic counterfactual is less than +0.40 (40% premium) at p_perm < 0.10, OR (b) under-five mortality decline gap is less than 30 per 1000 by 2024, OR (c) the civil-liberties score (V-Dem v2x_civlib) does NOT show a regression of at least 0.10 below the SSA donor-pool average over 2010-2024 (i.e. the authoritarian-developmentalism characterisation fails empirically — important counter-test).

formal test & threshold
test:      synth_did_dual_economic_with_authoritarianism_validation
threshold: cumulative_log_gdp_pc_gap >= 0.40 at p_perm < 0.10 AND mortality_gap >= 30 per 1000 AND vdem_civlib_2010_2024_gap <= -0.10

Method

Template
synth_did
Clustering
country
Sample
7 countries · 1990 – 2024
Evidence type
causal

Primary: synth_did with RWA treated from 1995 and SSA peer donor pool. Secondary: Callaway-Sant'Anna DiD using never-treated peers. Tertiary: dual-outcome reporting on GDP and child mortality. Robustness drops Burundi (parallel-conflict confound) and drops Ethiopia (developmental-state co-treatment).

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_pc
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
pwt:rgdpetier 3
maddison:mpd2020tier 3
log_level
under_five_mortality
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SH.DYN.MORTtier 2
who_gho:CME_MRY5tier 1
level
life_expectancy
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.INtier 2
who_gho:WHOSIS_000001tier 1
level
electricity_access_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:EG.ELC.ACCS.ZStier 2
level
vdem_civil_liberties
outcome
vdem:v2x_civlibtier 4
level
rpf_governance_indicator
treatment
constructed:1 for RWA from 1995 onwardtier 5
binary
terms_of_trade
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
level
oda_share_gni
control
world_bank_wdi:DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZStier 2
level
agricultural_va_share
control
world_bank_wdi:NV.AGR.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
oil_price
control
fred:DCOILBRENTEUtier 1
log_level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — africa_rwanda_post_genocide_growth_model_1995_2024

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=+330.7, |gap|/pre_sd=4.4, p_perm=0.571 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Rwanda's post-1995 reconstruction trajectory under the RPF/Kagame government produced a multi-decade growth premium versus Sub-Saharan African peers, accompanied by sharp improvements in life expectancy, child mortality, and electrification, and a comparatively idiosyncratic civil-liberties regression captured in V-Dem and Freedom House. The pre-registered claim is that, in a synthetic-control design with SSA peers (Burundi, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia, Mozambique), Rwanda's cumulative real- GDP-pc growth 1995-2024 exceeds the synthetic counterfactual by at least 50% AND under- five mortality declines by at least 30 deaths per 1000 more than counterfactual. The null counter-claim is that Rwanda's gains, while large in absolute terms, are consistent with post-conflict catch-up dynamics generally and not a regime-specific premium attributable to RPF developmental governance.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if EITHER (a) cumulative log-GDP-pc gap 1995-2024 vs synthetic counterfactual is less than +0.40 (40% premium) at p_perm < 0.10, OR (b) under-five mortality decline gap is less than 30 per 1000 by 2024, OR (c) the civil-liberties score (V-Dem v2x_civlib) does NOT show a regression of at least 0.10 below the SSA donor-pool average over 2010-2024 (i.e. the authoritarian-developmentalism characterisation fails empirically — important counter-test).

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: RWA
  • event_year: 1995
  • n_donors: 6
  • donor_weights (top): {'BDI': 1.0, 'UGA': 0.0, 'TZA': 0.0, 'KEN': 0.0, 'ETH': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 75.82394003057983
  • pre_period_sd: 75.15772222557356
  • mean_post_gap: 330.67927335736135
  • end_period_gap: 801.749180317536
  • post_period_years: [1995, 2024]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.5714285714285714
  • n_placebos: 6
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD; pwt:rgdpe; maddison:mpd2020 → real_gdp_pc (outcome, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:SH.DYN.MORT; who_gho:CME_MRY5 → under_five_mortality (outcome, n=13401)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.IN; who_gho:WHOSIS_000001 → life_expectancy (outcome, n=16931)
  • world_bank_wdi:EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS → electricity_access_share (outcome, n=7746)
  • constructed: 1 for RWA from 1995 onward → rpf_governance_indicator (treatment, n=245)
  • world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WD → terms_of_trade (controls, n=6478)
  • world_bank_wdi:DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS → oda_share_gni (controls, n=9952)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS → agricultural_va_share (controls, n=10968)
  • fred:DCOILBRENTEU → oil_price (controls, n=280)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-05-15T20:30:45+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Data-gated on NISR (Rwanda) plus WDI/Maddison long-run series. The civil-liberties counter-test is deliberately included so the hypothesis cannot be a simple "Rwanda good" finding — the spec requires the authoritarian-side cost to also register.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.