IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·argentina_default_collapse_output_effects

Argentine convertibility and subsequent collapse (Menem 1991–2001) reflects rule-based money's appeal combined with fixed-regime rigidity risk that Austrian theory predicts.

PARTIALengine/runs/argentina_default_collapse_output_effects

PARTIAL — shape=ITS, mean_gap=+6.086, z=+1.7; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether convertibility collapse event is actually linked to better or worse real income growth from 1991 to 2005.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=ITS, mean_gap=+6.086, z=+1.7; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1991 to 2005, using a event study design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Convertibility collapse event
  • Convertibility regime indicator
What we checked
  • Real income growth
  • Cpi inflation
  • Peso usd exchange rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/argentina_default_collapse_output_effects
1007550250199119982005ARG
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_growth across 1 sampled countries over 1991–2005.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for argentina_default_collapse_output_effects. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/argentina_default_collapse_output_effects/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callChicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-05-12T10:33:23Z

Argentine convertibility and subsequent collapse (Menem 1991–2001) reflects rule-based money's appeal combined with fixed-regime rigidity risk that Austrian theory predicts.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if the preregistered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p < 0.05), or if the primary outcome measure does not move in the claimed direction.

formal test & threshold
test:      argentina_default_collapse_output_effects_placeholder_test

Method

Template
event_study
Clustering
episode
Sample
1 countries · 1991 – 2005
Evidence type
associational

Stub-level estimator pin for runnability audit. Event-study around the Dec-2001 convertibility collapse / corralito / default; quarterly output, real exchange rate, and inflation responses at h = -4..+8 quarters. Falsification rule and variables block remain to be filled when promoted from draft.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
imf:NGDP_RPCHtier 2
pct_change_yoy
cpi_inflation
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
imf:PCPIPCHtier 2
pct_change_yoy
peso_usd_exchange_rate
outcome
bcra:exchange_rate_officialtier 1
bis:WS_EERtier 2
log_diff
unemployment_rate
outcome
indec:unemployment_ratetier 2
ilostat:UE_TUNE_SEX_AGE_RTtier 2
level_pct
convertibility_collapse_event
treatment
constructed:event date = 2001-12-20 (corralito); 2002-01-06 (peso devaluation)tier 5
event_date
convertibility_regime_indicator
treatment
constructed:binary = 1 during 1991-04 to 2001-12 (Cavallo plan)tier 5
binary
terms_of_trade
control
imf_pcps:PALLFNFtier 1
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
log_diff
external_debt_pct_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:DT.DOD.DECT.GN.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — argentina_default_collapse_output_effects

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=ITS, mean_gap=+6.086, z=+1.7; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Argentine convertibility and subsequent collapse (Menem 1991–2001) reflects rule-based money's appeal combined with fixed-regime rigidity risk that Austrian theory predicts.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if the preregistered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p < 0.05), or if the primary outcome measure does not move in the claimed direction.
  • Falsification test:
  • Event year: 2001

Estimate

  • shape: single_country_its
  • country: ARG
  • event_year: 2001
  • n_pre: 10
  • n_post: 5
  • pre_trend_slope: -1.0614896315261508
  • pre_trend_intercept: 2122.360742886326
  • pre_residual_sd: 3.5481414688814854
  • end_year: 2005
  • end_year_actual: 8.85165992013437
  • end_year_counterfactual: -5.925968323606412
  • end_year_gap: 14.777628243740782
  • mean_post_gap: 6.085978961635989
  • z_end: 4.1648926271249485
  • z_mean: 1.7152582598558368
  • post_period_years: [2001, 2005]

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG; imf:NGDP_RPCH → real_gdp_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG; imf:PCPIPCH → cpi_inflation (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9066)
  • bcra:exchange_rate_official; bis:WS_EER → peso_usd_exchange_rate (outcome, publisher=bis, n=2922)
  • imf_pcps:PALLFNF; world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WD → terms_of_trade (controls, publisher=imf_pcps, n=37)
  • world_bank_wdi:DT.DOD.DECT.GN.ZS → external_debt_pct_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=5996)

Variables missing data

  • indec:unemployment_rate; ilostat:UE_TUNE_SEX_AGE_RT (outcome, name=unemployment_rate)
  • constructed: event date = 2001-12-20 (corralito); 2002-01-06 (peso devaluation) (treatment, name=convertibility_collapse_event)
  • constructed: binary = 1 during 1991-04 to 2001-12 (Cavallo plan) (treatment, name=convertibility_regime_indicator)

Generated by scripts/run_event_study.py at 2026-05-12T10:33:23+00:00

Notes

Origin is auto-generated coverage-gap stub seeded from Austrian-school claims about Menem-era convertibility and the 2001 collapse. Human review required before promotion to candidate.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.