Pre-registration
Argentinian chronic inflation reflects foreign-currency obligations (dollar-denominated debt, dollarised expectations) and repeated fiscal dominance in a non-sovereign currency, not a generic 'money printing' failure.
Falsification criterion — what would disprove this
This hypothesis is considered falsified if:
Primary v2 descriptive test uses 2014-2023, the overlap window where BCRA official FX data, BCRA monthly CPI inflation, WDI external-debt/GNI, and IMF fiscal balance are all locally available. High-inflation years are years with compounded BCRA monthly inflation above 25%. The FX/fiscal-dominance mechanism is supported if every high-inflation year has peso depreciation above 20%, external debt/GNI above 30%, and fiscal balance below -2% of GDP, and if the annual inflation-vs-FX-depreciation correlation is at least 0.60. It is refuted if fewer than half of high-inflation years meet all three mechanism conditions or the inflation-vs-FX correlation is below 0.20.
formal test & threshold
test: argentina_bcra_fx_fiscal_overlap_2014_2023 threshold: support if 100% high-inflation years meet FX/debt/deficit gates and corr>=0.60; refute if <50% meet or corr<0.20
Method
- Template
cointegration_vecm- Clustering
episode- Sample
- 1 countries · 1971 – 2023
- Evidence type
- associational
Stub-level estimator pin for runnability audit. Long-run cointegration between Argentine CPI inflation, peso-USD exchange rate, and the share of USD-denominated obligations / fiscal-deficit monetisation, 1971-2023. VECM with structural breaks at major regime shifts (Convertibility 1991, 2001 default, 2018 IMF stand-by). Falsification rule and variables block remain to be filled when this stub is promoted from draft.
Data
| Variable | Source | Transform |
|---|---|---|
cpi_inflation_annual outcome | world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2 imf:PCPIPCHtier 2 | pct_change_yoy |
peso_usd_exchange_rate outcome | bcra:exchange_rate_officialtier 1 bis:WS_EERtier 2 | log_diff |
usd_denominated_debt_share treatment | world_bank_wdi:DT.DOD.DECT.GN.ZStier 2 bcra:public_debt_currency_breakdowntier 1 | level_pct |
fiscal_deficit_pct_gdp treatment | imf:GGXCNL_NGDPtier 2 world_bank_wdi:GC.NLD.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2 | level |
bcra_monetisation_indicator treatment | constructed:binary = 1 when BCRA adelantos transitorios > 1% GDPtier 5 | binary |
terms_of_trade control | imf_pcps:PALLFNFtier 1 | log_diff |
real_gdp_growth control | world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2 | pct_change_yoy |
● ready · ● pending · ● reconstruct-needed
Detailed result card
argentina_fx_obligation_inflation_mechanism
Verdict: SUPPORTED — every high-inflation year in the 2014-2023 BCRA/WDI/IMF overlap window clears the FX/debt/deficit mechanism gates, and inflation-FX correlation is 0.93.
Registered Overlap Test
- High inflation: compounded BCRA monthly inflation >25%.
- Mechanism gates: FX depreciation >20%, external debt/GNI >30%, fiscal balance <-2% GDP.
- High-inflation years clearing all gates: 7/7.
- Inflation-FX depreciation correlation: 0.934.
Method Note
This is a local-data overlap-window test, not the full 1971-2023 VECM.
Strongest opposing argument
Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.
Notes
Origin is auto-generated coverage-gap stub seeded from MMT framing of Argentine inflation as FX-obligation and fiscal-dominance driven, not generic money-printing. v2 pins a narrower local-data descriptive mechanism test over the BCRA/WDI/IMF overlap window.