IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·argentina_institutional_instability_decline

Argentina's post-1945 economic decline from high-income status is attributable to institutional instability (Peronist-military cycles, property-rights uncertainty, central-bank subordination) more than to specific policy choices.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/argentina_institutional_instability_decline

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — falsification rule not sharpened — auto-grader refuses to grade against the generic stub boilerplate. Promote the spec (replace falsification.rule with a dispositive threshold AND document the sharpening in methodology_note) before running.

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. falsification rule not sharpened - auto-grader refuses to grade against the generic stub boilerplate.

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1945 to 2023, using a multi metric checklist design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Log income pc cost-of-living adjusted
  • Maddison real income pc
  • Cpi inflation
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/argentina_institutional_instability_decline
1007550250194519842023ARG
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show log_gdp_pc_ppp across 1 sampled countries over 1945–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for argentina_institutional_instability_decline. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/argentina_institutional_instability_decline/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

New Institutional Economicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:51:54Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Argentina's post-1945 economic decline from high-income status is attributable to institutional instability (Peronist-military cycles, property-rights uncertainty, central-bank subordination) more than to specific policy choices.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      ARG 1945-2023 multi-metric checklist comparing Polity/V-Dem institutional indices, WGI rule-of-law, central-bank-independence index, inflation volatility against log GDP per capita; document trajectory pattern. Refute if institutional-quality dispersion does not co-move with per-capita-GDP trajectory at the 5y level over the post-1945 sample.

Method

Template
multi_metric_checklist
Clustering
none
Sample
1 countries · 1945 – 2023
Evidence type
canonical_case_multi_metric

Single-country canonical case (Argentina post-1945 decline). Pattern-match across institutional-quality, central-bank-independence, property-rights, inflation-volatility, and per-capita-GDP-trajectory metrics rather than a single causal estimate. Pre-registration of the metric set will follow when this stub is upgraded to candidate.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_gdp_pc_ppp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
maddison_real_gdp_pc
outcome
maddison:gdppc_ppptier 3
log
cpi_inflation
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
level
polity_score
outcome
polity5:polity2tier 4
level
rule_of_law
outcome
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level
vdem_liberal_democracy
outcome
vdem:v2x_libdemtier 4
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — argentina_institutional_instability_decline

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — falsification rule not sharpened — auto-grader refuses to grade against the generic stub boilerplate. Promote the spec (replace falsification.rule with a dispositive threshold AND document the sharpening in methodology_note) before running.

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Argentina's post-1945 economic decline from high-income status is attributable to institutional instability (Peronist-military cycles, property-rights uncertainty, central-bank subordination) more than to specific policy choices.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: ARG 1945-2023 multi-metric checklist comparing Polity/V-Dem institutional indices, WGI rule-of-law, central-bank-independence index, inflation volatility against log GDP per capita; document trajectory pattern. Refute if institutional-quality dispersion does not co-move with per-capita-GDP trajectory at the 5y level over the post-1945 sample.

Estimate

  • Error: falsification rule not sharpened — auto-grader refuses to grade against the generic stub boilerplate. Promote the spec (replace falsification.rule with a dispositive threshold AND document the sharpening in methodology_note) before running.

Variables resolved

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:51:54+00:00

Notes

Maps the institutionalism school's Argentina-decline-from-instability claim to a multi-metric pattern-match across institutional-quality, central-bank independence, property rights, inflation volatility, and per-capita GDP trajectory 1945-2023. Estimator and prior set; full pre-registration awaits steelman + human sign-off.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.