IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·argentina_paso_2019_fx_reserves_inflation_base_money_lag

Argentina's 2019 PASO shock generated an immediate official-FX break, reserve loss, and inflation pass-through; the 2020 base-money expansion was followed by a lagged inflation pickup by Q4.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/argentina_paso_2019_fx_reserves_inflation_base_money_lag

SUPPORTED

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefClear support

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether paso primary shock is actually linked to better or worse official fx retail from 2019 to 2020.

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. SUPPORTED

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2019 to 2020, using a multi metric checklist design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Paso primary shock
  • Pandemic base money expansion
What we checked
  • Official fx retail
  • International reserves
  • Monthly cpi inflation
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

4 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/argentina_paso_2019_fx_reserves_inflation_base_money_lag
1007550250201920202020ARG
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show official_fx_retail across 1 sampled countries over 2019–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for argentina_paso_2019_fx_reserves_inflation_base_money_lag. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/argentina_paso_2019_fx_reserves_inflation_base_money_lag/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Chicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z

Argentina's 2019 PASO shock generated an immediate official-FX break, reserve loss, and inflation pass-through; the 2020 base-money expansion was followed by a lagged inflation pickup by Q4.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if at least 3 of 4 metrics pass: PASO-week devaluation exceeds 25 percent, reserves fall by more than 10 percent in about 30 days, Aug-Sep 2019 monthly inflation averages above 4.5 percent, and 2020 base money grows more than 20 percent from March to September while Q4 monthly inflation exceeds Q2 by more than 1pp. REFUTED if 2 or fewer pass.

formal test & threshold
test:      argentina_paso_2019_base_money_lag_four_metric_window
threshold: SUPPORTED if >= 3 metrics pass; REFUTED if <= 2 pass.

Method

Template
multi_metric_checklist
Clustering
none
Sample
1 countries · 2019 – 2020
Evidence type
canonical_case_multi_metric

Compact national event-window replication from cached ONS/INE/BCRA vintages.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
official_fx_retail
outcome
bcra:4tier 1
daily ARS/USD
international_reserves
outcome
bcra:1tier 1
daily USD millions
monthly_cpi_inflation
outcome
bcra:27tier 1
monthly percent
monetary_base
outcome
bcra:15tier 1
daily ARS millions
paso_primary_shock
treatment
constructed:2019-08-11 PASO primarytier 5
event indicator
pandemic_base_money_expansion
treatment
constructed:2020 monetary-base expansion windowtier 5
event indicator

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - argentina_paso_2019_fx_reserves_inflation_base_money_lag

Verdict: SUPPORTED - 3/4 metrics passed (support >= 3; refute <= 2).

Claim

Argentina's 2019 PASO shock generated an immediate official-FX break, reserve loss, and inflation pass-through; the 2020 base-money expansion was followed by a lagged inflation pickup by Q4.

Metrics

| Metric | Value | Threshold | Pass | Details | |---|---:|---|:---:|---| | paso_fx_devaluation | 33.577 | >25% devaluation within one week | yes | 46.55 to 62.18 ARS/USD | | reserves_drawdown | 24.461 | >10% reserve fall within about 30 days | yes | 66309 to 50089 USD mn | | inflation_pass_through | 4.950 | Aug-Sep 2019 average monthly CPI >4.5% | yes | 4.95% average monthly | | base_money_lagged_inflation | 1.933 | base money +20% Mar-Sep and Q4 inflation > Q2 by 1pp | no | base 2292083 to 2393695; CPI avg 1.73% to 3.67% |

Interpretation

This is a compact predeclared event-window verdict using local cached national-statistics vintages. It is strong for timing and magnitude, but not a full causal structural decomposition.

Provenance

See manifest.yaml for exact vintage files and SHA-256 hashes. Re-run with replication.py.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Generated by scripts/generate_national_event_wave.py from local cached vintages; no network fetch required.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.