IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·automatic_stabiliser_2008_contraction_severity

Post-2008 countries with larger automatic stabilisers (Nordics, Germany short-time work) experienced milder output and employment contractions than countries with weaker welfare-state cushions (UK, southern Eurozone).

PARTIALengine/runs/automatic_stabiliser_2008_contraction_severity

PARTIAL — coef=+1.226e-06, p=0.473 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+1.226e-06, p=0.473 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 18 country or place units from 2005 to 2017, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Automatic stabiliser intensity
  • Short time work coverage
What we checked
  • Real income growth
  • Unemployment rate
  • Employment rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/automatic_stabiliser_2008_contraction_severity
1007550250200520112017DEUGBRNORSWEDNKFINESP
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_growth across 18 sampled countries over 2005–2017.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for automatic_stabiliser_2008_contraction_severity. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/automatic_stabiliser_2008_contraction_severity/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Social Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:42Z

Post-2008 countries with larger automatic stabilisers (Nordics, Germany short-time work) experienced milder output and employment contractions than countries with weaker welfare-state cushions (UK, southern Eurozone).

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if higher pre-2008 automatic-stabiliser intensity predicts larger output or employment contractions at p<0.10, or if the estimated contraction cushion is below 0.10 standard deviations. It is partial if the sign is favourable but the precision or stabiliser-index coverage is weak.

formal test & threshold
test:      OECD panel FE 2005-2017 of 2008-trough peak-to-trough GDP and unemployment change on pre-2008 automatic-stabiliser intensity index (welfare expenditure / GDP + replacement rates + STWS coverage); country+year FE, country-clustered SEs. Refute if stabiliser-intensity coefficient sign-flipped at p<0.10 OR magnitude <0.10 standard deviation.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
18 countries · 2005 – 2017
Evidence type
associational

Cross-country panel: 2008-trough output gap and employment loss regressed on a pre-2008 automatic-stabiliser intensity index (welfare expenditure %GDP, replacement rates, short-time-work coverage). Tests whether higher stabiliser intensity predicts smaller contractions, holding pre-crisis fiscal stance and openness constant.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
unemployment_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
employment_rate
outcome
ilostat:employment_to_population_ratiotier 2
level
automatic_stabiliser_intensity
treatment
oecd:SOCX_AGGtier 2
level
short_time_work_coverage
treatment
oecd:STWStier 2
level
pre_2008_debt_to_gdp
control
imf:GGXWDG_NGDPtier 2
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
log_initial_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — automatic_stabiliser_2008_contraction_severity

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+1.226e-06, p=0.473 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Post-2008 countries with larger automatic stabilisers (Nordics, Germany short-time work) experienced milder output and employment contractions than countries with weaker welfare-state cushions (UK, southern Eurozone).
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if higher pre-2008 automatic-stabiliser intensity predicts larger output or employment contractions at p<0.10, or if the estimated contraction cushion is below 0.10 standard deviations. It is partial if the sign is favourable but the precision or stabiliser-index coverage is weak.
  • Falsification test: OECD panel FE 2005-2017 of 2008-trough peak-to-trough GDP and unemployment change on pre-2008 automatic-stabiliser intensity index (welfare expenditure / GDP + replacement rates + STWS coverage); country+year FE, country-clustered SEs. Refute if stabiliser-intensity coefficient sign-flipped at p<0.10 OR magnitude <0.10 standard deviation.

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +1.226e-06
  • Std error: 1.707e-06
  • p-value: 0.473
  • Observations: 234, countries: 18
  • Within R²: 0.222
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6874)
  • ilostat:employment_to_population_ratio → employment_rate (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8071)
  • oecd:SOCX_AGG → automatic_stabiliser_intensity (treatment, publisher=oecd, n=1649)
  • imf:GGXWDG_NGDP → pre_2008_debt_to_gdp (controls, publisher=imf, n=8113)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_initial_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)

Variables missing data

  • oecd:STWS (treatment, name=short_time_work_coverage) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:42+00:00

Notes

Maps the social-democratic school's automatic-stabilisers-cushion-recession claim to a cross- country panel comparing 2008-trough output/employment losses against pre-crisis stabiliser-intensity index. Estimator and prior set; full pre-registration awaits steelman + human sign-off.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.