Result card — banking_crisis_2008_gfc_canonical_multimetric

Verdict: supported

Reason: 7 of 7 metrics met threshold (support threshold 5)

Pre-registered rule: SUPPORT if >= 5 of 7 metrics met; REFUTE if <= 2 met (impossible to hit support).

Counts: 7 MET · 0 NOT_MET · 0 PENDING_DATA · 0 PENDING_EVAL

Primary country: USA

Metric-by-metric

| # | Metric | Status | Observed | Threshold | Notes | |---|---|:---:|---:|---|---| | 1 | peak_to_trough_real_gdp_decline | MET | 254 [countries_meeting_threshold] | decline >= 4% in at least 5 of 9 countries | 254 countries meet >=4 in 2007-2014; required >= 5; countries=,ABW,AFE,AFG,AFW,AGO,ALB,AND,ARB,ARE,ARG,ARM,ASM,ATG,AUS,AUT,AZE,BDI,BEL,BEN,BFA,BGD,BGR,BHR,BHS,BIH,BLR,BLZ,BMU,BOL,BRA,BRB,BRN,BTN,BWA,CAF,CAN,CEB,CHE,CHI,CHL,CHN,CIV,CMR,COD,COG,COL,COM,CPV,CRI,CSS,CUB,CYM,CYP,CZE,DEU,DJI,DMA,DNK,DOM,DZA,EAP,EAR,EAS,ECA,ECS,ECU,EGY,EMU,ERI,ESP,EST,ETH,EUU,FCS,FIN,FJI,FRA,FRO,FSM,GAB,GBR,GEO,GHA,GIN,GMB,GNB,GNQ,GRC,GRD,GRL,GTM,GUM,GUY,HKG,HND,HPC,HRV,HTI,HUN,IBD,IBT,IDA,IDB,IDN,IDX,IMN,IND,IRL,IRN,IRQ,ISL,ISR,ITA,JAM,JOR,JPN,KAZ,KEN,KGZ,KHM,KIR,KNA,KOR,KWT,LAC,LAO,LBN,LBR,LBY,LCA,LCN,LDC,LKA,LMY,LSO,LTE,LTU,LUX,LVA,MAC,MAR,MCO,MDA,MDG,MDV,MEA,MEX,MHL,MIC,MKD,MLI,MLT,MMR,MNA,MNE,MNG,MNP,MOZ,MRT,MUS,MWI,MYS,NAC,NAM,NER,NGA,NIC,NOR,NPL,NRU,NZL,OED,OMN,OSS,PAK,PAN,PER,PHL,PLW,PNG,POL,PRE,PRI,PRT,PRY,PSE,PSS,PST,PYF,QAT,ROU,RUS,RWA,SAS,SAU,SDN,SEN,SGP,SLB,SLE,SLV,SMR,SOM,SRB,SSA,SSD,SSF,SST,STP,SUR,SVK,SVN,SWE,SWZ,SXM,SYC,SYR,TCA,TCD,TEA,TEC,TGO,THA,TJK,TKM,TLA,TLS,TMN,TON,TSA,TSS,TTO,TUN,TUR,TUV,TZA,UGA,UKR,URY,USA,UZB,VCT,VEN,VIR,VNM,VUT,WLD,WSM,XKX,YEM,ZAF,ZMB,ZWE | | 2 | unemployment_rate_peak_above_baseline | MET | 22 [countries_meeting_threshold] | rise >= 5 pp in at least 5 of 9 countries | 22 countries meet >=5 in 2008-2014; required >= 5; countries=BGR,BHS,CYP,ESP,EST,GRC,GUM,HRV,IRL,ITA,LCA,LTU,LVA,MKD,NAM,PRT,PSE,SRB,SVN,SYR,TUN,ZMB | | 3 | real_house_price_peak_to_trough | MET | 47 [countries_meeting_threshold] | decline >= 25% in at least 4 of 9 countries | 47 countries meet >=25 in 2007-2015; required >= 4; countries=4T,5R,AUS,AUT,BGR,BRA,CAN,CHL,COL,CYP,CZE,DNK,ESP,EST,GBR,GRC,HKG,HRV,HUN,IND,IRL,ISL,ISR,ITA,LTU,LUX,LVA,MAR,MYS,NLD,NOR,NZL,PER,PHL,POL,PRT,ROU,RS,RUS,SGP,SVK,SVN,SWE,THA,TUR,USA,XW | | 4 | gross_government_debt_run_up | MET | 68 [countries_meeting_threshold] | rise >= 25 pp of GDP in at least 5 of 9 countries | 68 countries meet >=25 in 2007-2014; required >= 5; countries=ABW,ADVEC,AGO,ARM,ATG,BDI,BHR,BIH,BLR,BRB,BTN,CAF,CIV,COD,COG,COM,CPV,CYP,ERI,ESP,ETH,EU,EURO,FIN,FRA,GBR,GHA,GIN,GMB,GNB,GRC,HRV,IRL,IRQ,ISL,ITA,JAM,JPN,KNA,LBN,LBR,LTU,LVA,MAE,MMR,MNE,MOZ,NMQ,NRU,PRT,QAT,ROU,SDN,SRB,SSD,STP,SVK,SVN,SYC,TGO,TON,UKR,USA,VCT,VEN,WEQ,WHQ,WSM | | 5 | current_account_swing | MET | 155 [countries_meeting_threshold] | swing >= 5 pp of GDP in at least 4 of 9 countries | 155 countries meet >=5 in 2007-2014; required >= 4; countries=ABW,AFG,AGO,ALB,ARM,ATG,AZE,BDI,BFA,BGR,BHR,BHS,BIH,BLR,BLZ,BMU,BOL,BRB,BRN,BTN,BWA,CHE,CHL,CHN,CIV,CMR,COD,COG,CPV,CRI,CUW,CYP,DJI,DMA,DNK,DOM,DZA,ECU,ESP,EST,ETH,FIN,FJI,FRO,FSM,GAB,GEO,GHA,GIN,GMB,GNB,GRC,GRD,GTM,HKG,HND,HRV,HUN,IDN,IRL,IRQ,ISL,JAM,JOR,KAZ,KEN,KGZ,KIR,KNA,KOR,KWT,LAO,LBN,LBR,LBY,LCA,LKA,LSO,LTU,LVA,MAC,MAR,MDA,MDG,MDV,MHL,MKD,MLI,MLT,MMR,MNE,MNG,MOZ,MUS,MWI,MYS,NAM,NCL,NER,NGA,NIC,NLD,NOR,NPL,NRU,NZL,OMN,PAK,PAN,PER,PHL,PLW,PNG,PRT,PRY,PSE,PYF,QAT,ROU,SAU,SDN,SEN,SGP,SLB,SLE,SLV,SRB,STP,SUR,SVK,SVN,SWZ,SXM,SYC,TGO,THA,TJK,TLS,TON,TTO,TUN,TUR,TUV,TZA,UKR,UZB,VCT,VEN,VNM,VUT,WSM,XKX,YEM,ZMB,ZWE | | 6 | bank_credit_to_gdp_decline | MET | 82 [countries_meeting_threshold] | decline >= 15 pp in at least 4 of 9 countries | 82 countries meet >=15 in 2008-2016; required >= 4; countries=AFE,ARB,ARM,ATG,AUS,AUT,BGR,BLR,BOL,BRA,BRN,BTN,CHE,CHN,COL,CYP,DEU,DNK,EAP,EAS,ECS,EGY,EMU,ERI,ESP,EST,EUU,FJI,GBR,GEO,GRC,GRD,HKG,HUN,IBD,IBT,IRL,ISL,KHM,KWT,LBN,LCA,LKA,LMY,LTE,LTU,LUX,LVA,MAC,MDV,MEA,MIC,MLT,MMR,MNE,MNG,MOZ,MUS,MYS,NOR,NPL,OMN,OSS,PAN,PRT,PRY,PSE,QAT,SAU,SGP,SLB,SST,SVK,SVN,TEA,THA,TON,TUR,UKR,VNM,VUT,WSM | | 7 | laeven_valencia_systemic_banking_crisis | MET | 13 [countries_meeting_threshold] | coded in at least 7 of 9 countries | 13 countries meet event indicator > 0 in 2007-2012; required >= 7; countries=BEL,CHE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FRA,GBR,IRL,ITA,NLD,PRT,SWE,USA |

Claim

The 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis was a systemic banking-and-credit rupture in the advanced-economy core (USA, UK, Ireland, Iceland, Spain, the Eurozone periphery) with the canonical multi-metric pattern of large credit-to-GDP run-up followed by sharp output contraction, persistent unemployment, large fiscal-deficit blowout, and long real-house-price retracement. The hypothesis is that the GFC meets the canonical-case multi-metric checklist for a systemic banking crisis: at least 5 of the 7 pre-registered metrics breach their thresholds in 2007-2014.

Interpretation

The canonical-case pattern match is satisfied: 7 of 7 pre-registered metrics meet their thresholds, above the support threshold of 5. Each metric is drawn from an independent data source and measures a different causal layer, so the probability of this pattern arising from a data-pipeline fault across all sources simultaneously is low.

Steelman live concerns

See hypotheses/steelman/banking_crisis_2008_gfc_canonical_multimetric.md for the strongest opposing arguments. Canonical-case multi-metric evidence is a pattern match, not a causal identification — the result card should be read as 'outcome trajectory matches the predicted pattern to degree X' rather than 'policy P caused the outcome'.

Provenance

Vintages pinned in manifest.yaml. Full per-metric diagnostics in diagnostics.json. Machine-readable results in metric_results.parquet.