IESET.
Hypotheses·regulatory·banking_crisis_china_2015_2020_panel

China's 2015 stock-market crash and the 2020-2024 property-sector deleveraging episode (Evergrande default August 2021, Country Garden distress August 2023, the "three red lines" macroprudential framework introduced 2020) constitute a sustained financial-stress episode characterised by extreme equity volatility 2015-2016, real residential property price decline >= 10% in tier-2/3 cities 2021-2024, and developer-bond defaults exceeding RMB 1 trillion cumulative.

The hypothesis is that China 2015-2024 meets a multi-metric financial-stress checklist on at least 3 of 4 metrics WITHOUT producing a Laeven-Valencia-coded systemic banking crisis.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/banking_crisis_china_2015_2020_panel

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome or no treatment variable in spec

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether the policy story survives a real-world data check from 2013 to 2024.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome or no treatment variable in spec

why it matters

This matters because regulatory claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2013 to 2024, using a multi metric checklist design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Real house price index
  • Bank credit to income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/banking_crisis_china_2015_2020_panel
1007550250201320192024CHN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_house_price_index across 1 sampled countries over 2013–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for banking_crisis_china_2015_2020_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/banking_crisis_china_2015_2020_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:01Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

China's 2015 stock-market crash and the 2020-2024 property-sector deleveraging episode (Evergrande default August 2021, Country Garden distress August 2023, the "three red lines" macroprudential framework introduced 2020) constitute a sustained financial-stress episode characterised by extreme equity volatility 2015-2016, real residential property price decline >= 10% in tier-2/3 cities 2021-2024, and developer-bond defaults exceeding RMB 1 trillion cumulative. The hypothesis is that China 2015-2024 meets a multi-metric financial-stress checklist on at least 3 of 4 metrics WITHOUT producing a Laeven-Valencia-coded systemic banking crisis.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Evaluate every canonical_metrics row against its pre-registered source, window, and threshold. The hypothesis is SUPPORTED if at least 3 of 4 metrics are MET. It is REFUTED if even counting all pending metrics as favorable cannot reach 3 MET metrics and the confirmed failures cross the pre-registered refutation guardrail. Otherwise the verdict is INCONCLUSIVE until pending data or pending evaluation metrics are resolved.

formal test & threshold
test:      multi_metric_checklist_canonical_banking_crisis
threshold: MET >= 3 of 4; REFUTE when MET + PENDING_DATA + PENDING_EVAL < 3; refutation guardrail=1

Method

Template
multi_metric_checklist
Clustering
none
Sample
1 countries · 2013 – 2024
Evidence type
canonical_case_multi_metric

Canonical-case checklist evaluator reads canonical_metrics and multi_metric_falsification; no regression model is estimated. Each metric is scored against its pre-registered source, window, and threshold before applying the count rule below.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_house_price_index
outcome
bis:WS_SPPtier 2
peak_to_trough
bank_credit_to_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZStier 2
change_2008_2017

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — banking_crisis_china_2015_2020_panel

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome or no treatment variable in spec

Pre-registration

  • Claim: China's 2015 stock-market crash and the 2020-2024 property-sector deleveraging episode (Evergrande default August 2021, Country Garden distress August 2023, the "three red lines" macroprudential framework introduced 2020) constitute a sustained financial-stress episode characterised by extreme equity volatility 2015-2016, real residential property price decline >= 10% in tier-2/3 cities 2021-2024, and developer-bond defaults exceeding RMB 1 trillion cumulative. The hypothesis is that China 2015-2024 meets a multi-metric financial-stress checklist on at least 3 of 4 metrics WITHOUT producing a Laeven-Valencia-coded systemic banking crisis.
  • Falsification rule: Evaluate every canonical_metrics row against its pre-registered source, window, and threshold. The hypothesis is SUPPORTED if at least 3 of 4 metrics are MET. It is REFUTED if even counting all pending metrics as favorable cannot reach 3 MET metrics and the confirmed failures cross the pre-registered refutation guardrail. Otherwise the verdict is INCONCLUSIVE until pending data or pending evaluation metrics are resolved.
  • Falsification test: multi_metric_checklist_canonical_banking_crisis

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome or no treatment variable in spec

Variables resolved

  • bis:WS_SPP → real_house_price_index (outcome, publisher=bis, n=2272)
  • world_bank_wdi:FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS → bank_credit_to_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9562)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:01+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.