IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·bis_corporate_credit_boom_investment_slowdown_panel_1970_2025

Rapid private credit expansion predicts weaker private-investment share over the following five years.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/bis_corporate_credit_boom_investment_slowdown_panel_1970_2025

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: forward outcome from WDI or BIS local vintage']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: forward outcome from WDI or BIS local vintage']

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 42 country or place units from 1964 to 2026, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Credit income growth 5y
What we checked
  • Fwd private investment share change 5y
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/bis_corporate_credit_boom_investment_slowdown_panel_1970_2025
1007550250196419952026AUSAUTBELBRACANCHECHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show fwd_private_investment_share_change_5y across 42 sampled countries over 1964–2026.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for bis_corporate_credit_boom_investment_slowdown_panel_1970_2025. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/bis_corporate_credit_boom_investment_slowdown_panel_1970_2025/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:42Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Rapid private credit expansion predicts weaker private-investment share over the following five years.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported only if the coefficient on credit_gdp_growth_5y and the raw treated-control contrast clear the predeclared direction and magnitude gates.

formal test & threshold
test:      bis_corporate_credit_boom_investment_slowdown_panel_1970_2025
threshold: {"coef_max": -0.03, "mean_diff_max": -0.5, "min_countries": 20, "min_observations": 600, "p_max": 0.1}

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
42 countries · 1964 – 2026
Evidence type
associational

Compact panel screen with country and calendar-year fixed effects. Standard errors clustered by country.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
fwd_private_investment_share_change_5y
outcome
constructed:forward outcome from WDI or BIS local vintagetier 5
forward_change_or_forward_average
credit_gdp_growth_5y
treatment
bis:WS_CREDIT_GAPtier 2
bis:WS_DSRtier 2
bis:WS_EERtier 2
bis:WS_SPPtier 2
threshold_or_interaction_predeclared_in_runner
private_investment_share
control
world_bank_wdi or BIS local vintagelevel
gdp_growth
control
world_bank_wdi or BIS local vintagelevel

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — bis_corporate_credit_boom_investment_slowdown_panel_1970_2025

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: forward outcome from WDI or BIS local vintage']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Rapid private credit expansion predicts weaker private-investment share over the following five years.
  • Falsification rule: Supported only if the coefficient on credit_gdp_growth_5y and the raw treated-control contrast clear the predeclared direction and magnitude gates.
  • Falsification test: bis_corporate_credit_boom_investment_slowdown_panel_1970_2025

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: forward outcome from WDI or BIS local vintage']

Variables resolved

  • bis:WS_CREDIT_GAP; bis:WS_DSR; bis:WS_EER; bis:WS_SPP → credit_gdp_growth_5y (treatment, publisher=bis, n=1914)

Variables missing data

  • constructed: forward outcome from WDI or BIS local vintage (outcome, name=fwd_private_investment_share_change_5y) — vintage not on disk
  • world_bank_wdi or BIS local vintage (controls, name=private_investment_share) — vintage not on disk
  • world_bank_wdi or BIS local vintage (controls, name=gdp_growth) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:42+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Generated and runnable via engine/runs/bis_corporate_credit_boom_investment_slowdown_panel_1970_2025/replication.py from local BIS/WDI vintages.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.