IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·bis_corporate_dsr_manufacturing_drag_panel

High non-financial corporate debt-service burdens predict lower manufacturing value-added shares, consistent with balance-sheet pressure crowding out tradable-sector reinvestment and slowing industrial upgrading.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/bis_corporate_dsr_manufacturing_drag_panel

SUPPORTED — coef=-0.05208 (sign matches claim -), p=0.0798

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=-0.05208 (sign matches claim -), p=0.0798

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 42 country or place units from 1999 to 2025, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Corporate dsr
What we checked
  • Manufacturing share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/bis_corporate_dsr_manufacturing_drag_panel
1007550250199920122025AUSAUTBELBRACANCHECHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show manufacturing_share across 42 sampled countries over 1999–2025.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for bis_corporate_dsr_manufacturing_drag_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/bis_corporate_dsr_manufacturing_drag_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:42Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

High non-financial corporate debt-service burdens predict lower manufacturing value-added shares, consistent with balance-sheet pressure crowding out tradable-sector reinvestment and slowing industrial upgrading.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED only if corporate_dsr is negative at p<=0.10 with at least 450 observations and 15 countries. REFUTED if corporate_dsr is positive at p<=0.10.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_bis_corporate_dsr_manufacturing_drag_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
42 countries · 1999 – 2025
Evidence type
associational

Two-way fixed effects screen of manufacturing share on corporate DSR and macro controls. Bespoke follow-up should test one- to three-year leads.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
manufacturing_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZStier 2
level
corporate_dsr
treatment
bis:WS_DSRtier 2
level
gdp_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
regulatory_quality
control
wgi:RQ.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — bis_corporate_dsr_manufacturing_drag_panel

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=-0.05208 (sign matches claim -), p=0.0798

Pre-registration

  • Claim: High non-financial corporate debt-service burdens predict lower manufacturing value-added shares, consistent with balance-sheet pressure crowding out tradable-sector reinvestment and slowing industrial upgrading.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED only if corporate_dsr is negative at p<=0.10 with at least 450 observations and 15 countries. REFUTED if corporate_dsr is positive at p<=0.10.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_bis_corporate_dsr_manufacturing_drag_panel

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.05208
  • Std error: 0.02964
  • p-value: 0.0798
  • Observations: 401, countries: 17
  • Within R²: 0.131
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZS → manufacturing_share (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9698)
  • bis:WS_DSR → corporate_dsr (treatment, publisher=bis, n=459)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → gdp_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • wgi:RQ.EST → regulatory_quality (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5169)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:42+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

The generic runner now filters BIS WS_DSR by borrower sector using the variable name, so corporate_dsr selects the non-financial corporate slice.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.