IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·bis_credit_gap_current_account_twin_deficit_risk

Credit-gap stress predicts larger unemployment increases when current accounts are in deficit.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/bis_credit_gap_current_account_twin_deficit_risk

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed from local BIS/WDI vintages']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether credit gap x current account deficit is actually linked to better or worse fwd unemployment change 2y from 1970 to 2025.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed from local BIS/WDI vintages']

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 42 country or place units from 1970 to 2025, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Credit gap x current account deficit
What we checked
  • Fwd unemployment change 2y
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

10 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/bis_credit_gap_current_account_twin_deficit_risk
1007550250197019982025AUSAUTBELBRACANCHECHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show fwd_unemployment_change_2y across 42 sampled countries over 1970–2025.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for bis_credit_gap_current_account_twin_deficit_risk. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/bis_credit_gap_current_account_twin_deficit_risk/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Marxian Political Economywins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:09Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Credit-gap stress predicts larger unemployment increases when current accounts are in deficit.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported only if the coefficient on credit_gap_x_current_account_deficit and the raw treated-control contrast clear the predeclared direction and magnitude gates.

formal test & threshold
test:      bis_credit_gap_current_account_twin_deficit_risk
threshold: {"coef_min": 0.25, "mean_diff_min": 0.25, "min_countries": 20, "min_observations": 600, "p_max": 0.1}

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
42 countries · 1970 – 2025
Evidence type
associational

Compact panel screen with country and calendar-year fixed effects. Standard errors clustered by country.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
fwd_unemployment_change_2y
outcome
constructed from local BIS/WDI vintagesforward_change_or_forward_average
credit_gap_x_current_account_deficit
treatment
bis:WS_CREDIT_GAPtier 2
bis:WS_DSRtier 2
bis:WS_SPPtier 2
threshold_or_interaction_predeclared_in_runner
credit_gap
control
world_bank_wdi or BIS local vintagelevel
current_account_balance_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi or BIS local vintagelevel
unemployment_rate
control
world_bank_wdi or BIS local vintagelevel

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — bis_credit_gap_current_account_twin_deficit_risk

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed from local BIS/WDI vintages']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Credit-gap stress predicts larger unemployment increases when current accounts are in deficit.
  • Falsification rule: Supported only if the coefficient on credit_gap_x_current_account_deficit and the raw treated-control contrast clear the predeclared direction and magnitude gates.
  • Falsification test: bis_credit_gap_current_account_twin_deficit_risk

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed from local BIS/WDI vintages']

Variables resolved

  • bis:WS_CREDIT_GAP; bis:WS_DSR; bis:WS_SPP; world_bank_wdi → credit_gap_x_current_account_deficit (treatment, publisher=bis, n=1914)

Variables missing data

  • constructed from local BIS/WDI vintages (outcome, name=fwd_unemployment_change_2y) — vintage not on disk
  • world_bank_wdi or BIS local vintage (controls, name=credit_gap) — vintage not on disk
  • world_bank_wdi or BIS local vintage (controls, name=current_account_balance_gdp) — vintage not on disk
  • world_bank_wdi or BIS local vintage (controls, name=unemployment_rate) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:09+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Generated and runnable via engine/runs/bis_credit_gap_current_account_twin_deficit_risk/replication.py from local BIS/WDI vintages.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.