IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·bis_credit_gap_dsr_joint_crisis_risk_panel_1999_2025

Country-years with both a high BIS credit gap and high household debt-service burden are followed by larger unemployment increases.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/bis_credit_gap_dsr_joint_crisis_risk_panel_1999_2025

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: forward outcome from WDI or BIS local vintage']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether credit gap x high dsr is actually linked to better or worse fwd unemployment change 2y from 1964 to 2026.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: forward outcome from WDI or BIS local vintage']

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 42 country or place units from 1964 to 2026, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Credit gap x high dsr
What we checked
  • Fwd unemployment change 2y
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

12 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/bis_credit_gap_dsr_joint_crisis_risk_panel_1999_2025
1007550250196419952026AUSAUTBELBRACANCHECHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show fwd_unemployment_change_2y across 42 sampled countries over 1964–2026.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for bis_credit_gap_dsr_joint_crisis_risk_panel_1999_2025. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/bis_credit_gap_dsr_joint_crisis_risk_panel_1999_2025/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:09Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Country-years with both a high BIS credit gap and high household debt-service burden are followed by larger unemployment increases.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported only if the coefficient on credit_gap_x_high_dsr and the raw treated-control contrast clear the predeclared direction and magnitude gates.

formal test & threshold
test:      bis_credit_gap_dsr_joint_crisis_risk_panel_1999_2025
threshold: {"coef_min": 0.4, "mean_diff_min": 0.4, "min_countries": 15, "min_observations": 450, "p_max": 0.1}

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
42 countries · 1964 – 2026
Evidence type
associational

Compact panel screen with country and calendar-year fixed effects. Standard errors clustered by country.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
fwd_unemployment_change_2y
outcome
constructed:forward outcome from WDI or BIS local vintagetier 5
forward_change_or_forward_average
credit_gap_x_high_dsr
treatment
bis:WS_CREDIT_GAPtier 2
bis:WS_DSRtier 2
bis:WS_EERtier 2
bis:WS_SPPtier 2
threshold_or_interaction_predeclared_in_runner
household_dsr
control
world_bank_wdi or BIS local vintagelevel
unemployment_rate
control
world_bank_wdi or BIS local vintagelevel

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — bis_credit_gap_dsr_joint_crisis_risk_panel_1999_2025

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: forward outcome from WDI or BIS local vintage']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Country-years with both a high BIS credit gap and high household debt-service burden are followed by larger unemployment increases.
  • Falsification rule: Supported only if the coefficient on credit_gap_x_high_dsr and the raw treated-control contrast clear the predeclared direction and magnitude gates.
  • Falsification test: bis_credit_gap_dsr_joint_crisis_risk_panel_1999_2025

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: forward outcome from WDI or BIS local vintage']

Variables resolved

  • bis:WS_CREDIT_GAP; bis:WS_DSR; bis:WS_EER; bis:WS_SPP → credit_gap_x_high_dsr (treatment, publisher=bis, n=1914)

Variables missing data

  • constructed: forward outcome from WDI or BIS local vintage (outcome, name=fwd_unemployment_change_2y) — vintage not on disk
  • world_bank_wdi or BIS local vintage (controls, name=household_dsr) — vintage not on disk
  • world_bank_wdi or BIS local vintage (controls, name=unemployment_rate) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:09+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Generated and runnable via engine/runs/bis_credit_gap_dsr_joint_crisis_risk_panel_1999_2025/replication.py from local BIS/WDI vintages.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.