IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·bis_credit_gap_governance_crisis_amplifier_panel

BIS credit-gap booms are followed by higher unemployment, and the association is larger where regulatory quality is weaker.

The core claim is not that every credit expansion is harmful, but that above-trend private credit becomes more fragile when the rule-bound governance environment is weak.

PARTIALengine/runs/bis_credit_gap_governance_crisis_amplifier_panel

PARTIAL — coef=-0.01304, p=0.252 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether credit gap is actually linked to better or worse unemployment rate from 1996 to 2025.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-0.01304, p=0.252 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 42 country or place units from 1996 to 2025, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Credit gap
  • Regulatory quality inverted
What we checked
  • Unemployment rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/bis_credit_gap_governance_crisis_amplifier_panel
1007550250199620112025AUSAUTBELBRACANCHECHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show unemployment_rate across 42 sampled countries over 1996–2025.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for bis_credit_gap_governance_crisis_amplifier_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/bis_credit_gap_governance_crisis_amplifier_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:09Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

BIS credit-gap booms are followed by higher unemployment, and the association is larger where regulatory quality is weaker. The core claim is not that every credit expansion is harmful, but that above-trend private credit becomes more fragile when the rule-bound governance environment is weak.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED only if the credit_gap x regulatory_quality_inverted coefficient is positive at p<=0.10 with at least 450 usable country-year observations and 15 countries. REFUTED if the interaction is negative at p<=0.10.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_bis_credit_gap_governance_crisis_amplifier_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
42 countries · 1996 – 2025
Evidence type
associational

Primary estimand is the interaction credit_gap x regulatory_quality_inverted, with credit_gap and the governance main effect retained as regressors.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
unemployment_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
credit_gap
treatment
bis:WS_CREDIT_GAPtier 2
level
regulatory_quality_inverted
treatment
wgi:RQ.ESTtier 4
inverted_scale
gdp_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — bis_credit_gap_governance_crisis_amplifier_panel

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-0.01304, p=0.252 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: BIS credit-gap booms are followed by higher unemployment, and the association is larger where regulatory quality is weaker. The core claim is not that every credit expansion is harmful, but that above-trend private credit becomes more fragile when the rule-bound governance environment is weak.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED only if the credit_gap x regulatory_quality_inverted coefficient is positive at p<=0.10 with at least 450 usable country-year observations and 15 countries. REFUTED if the interaction is negative at p<=0.10.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_bis_credit_gap_governance_crisis_amplifier_panel

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.01304
  • Std error: 0.01137
  • p-value: 0.252
  • Observations: 849, countries: 34
  • Within R²: 0.00278
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6874)
  • bis:WS_CREDIT_GAP → credit_gap (treatment, publisher=bis, n=1914)
  • wgi:RQ.EST → regulatory_quality_inverted (treatment, publisher=wgi, n=5169)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → gdp_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:09+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

First-pass runnable through scripts/run_panel_fe.py with the landed BIS/WDI/WGI vintages. A later bespoke replication should lag credit-gap treatments one to two years and report crisis-window unemployment changes.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.