IESET.
Hypotheses·housing·bis_credit_gap_house_price_reversal_oecd_1970_2025

Elevated BIS credit gaps predict weaker three-year real house-price growth.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/bis_credit_gap_house_price_reversal_oecd_1970_2025

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed from local BIS/WDI vintages']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Does the housing rule being tested make homes easier to build, rent, or afford, or does it quietly reduce supply and push costs elsewhere?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed from local BIS/WDI vintages']

why it matters

Housing policy affects rents, mobility, household budgets, and construction. The test looks for measurable effects rather than relying on slogans.

how the test works

It compares 42 country or place units from 1970 to 2025, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • High credit gap
What we checked
  • Fwd real house price growth 12q
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

10 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/bis_credit_gap_house_price_reversal_oecd_1970_2025
1007550250197019982025AUSAUTBELBRACANCHECHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show fwd_real_house_price_growth_12q across 42 sampled countries over 1970–2025.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for bis_credit_gap_house_price_reversal_oecd_1970_2025. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/bis_credit_gap_house_price_reversal_oecd_1970_2025/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:11Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Elevated BIS credit gaps predict weaker three-year real house-price growth.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported only if the coefficient on high_credit_gap and the raw treated-control contrast clear the predeclared direction and magnitude gates.

formal test & threshold
test:      bis_credit_gap_house_price_reversal_oecd_1970_2025
threshold: {"coef_max": -3.0, "mean_diff_max": -3.0, "min_countries": 20, "min_observations": 600, "p_max": 0.05}

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
42 countries · 1970 – 2025
Evidence type
associational

Compact panel screen with country and calendar-year fixed effects. Standard errors clustered by country.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
fwd_real_house_price_growth_12q
outcome
constructed from local BIS/WDI vintagesforward_change_or_forward_average
high_credit_gap
treatment
bis:WS_CREDIT_GAPtier 2
bis:WS_DSRtier 2
bis:WS_SPPtier 2
threshold_or_interaction_predeclared_in_runner
credit_gap
control
world_bank_wdi or BIS local vintagelevel
lag_real_house_price_growth_8q
control
world_bank_wdi or BIS local vintagelevel

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — bis_credit_gap_house_price_reversal_oecd_1970_2025

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed from local BIS/WDI vintages']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Elevated BIS credit gaps predict weaker three-year real house-price growth.
  • Falsification rule: Supported only if the coefficient on high_credit_gap and the raw treated-control contrast clear the predeclared direction and magnitude gates.
  • Falsification test: bis_credit_gap_house_price_reversal_oecd_1970_2025

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed from local BIS/WDI vintages']

Variables resolved

  • bis:WS_CREDIT_GAP; bis:WS_DSR; bis:WS_SPP; world_bank_wdi → high_credit_gap (treatment, publisher=bis, n=1914)

Variables missing data

  • constructed from local BIS/WDI vintages (outcome, name=fwd_real_house_price_growth_12q) — vintage not on disk
  • world_bank_wdi or BIS local vintage (controls, name=credit_gap) — vintage not on disk
  • world_bank_wdi or BIS local vintage (controls, name=lag_real_house_price_growth_8q) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:11+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Generated and runnable via engine/runs/bis_credit_gap_house_price_reversal_oecd_1970_2025/replication.py from local BIS/WDI vintages.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.