IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·bis_credit_gap_reer_appreciation_export_squeeze_panel

Credit booms are more damaging for export performance when paired with real exchange-rate appreciation.

Domestic credit excess and currency overvaluation should jointly squeeze tradable-sector competitiveness more than either condition alone.

REFUTEDengine/runs/bis_credit_gap_reer_appreciation_export_squeeze_panel

REFUTED — coef=+0.007529 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0286

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=+0.007529 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0286

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 42 country or place units from 1970 to 2025, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Credit gap
  • Reer appreciation
What we checked
  • Export growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/bis_credit_gap_reer_appreciation_export_squeeze_panel
1007550250197019982025AUSAUTBELBRACANCHECHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show export_growth across 42 sampled countries over 1970–2025.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for bis_credit_gap_reer_appreciation_export_squeeze_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/bis_credit_gap_reer_appreciation_export_squeeze_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:35Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Credit booms are more damaging for export performance when paired with real exchange-rate appreciation. Domestic credit excess and currency overvaluation should jointly squeeze tradable-sector competitiveness more than either condition alone.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED only if the credit_gap x reer_appreciation coefficient is negative at p<=0.10 with at least 700 observations and 20 countries. REFUTED if the interaction is positive at p<=0.10.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_bis_credit_gap_reer_appreciation_export_squeeze_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
42 countries · 1970 – 2025
Evidence type
associational

Primary estimand is credit_gap x reer_appreciation. The generic runner constructs the interaction from the two loaded treatment variables and keeps both main effects.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
export_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZGtier 2
level
credit_gap
treatment
bis:WS_CREDIT_GAPtier 2
level
reer_appreciation
treatment
bis:WS_EERtier 2
annual_pct_change
current_account_balance_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZStier 2
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — bis_credit_gap_reer_appreciation_export_squeeze_panel

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=+0.007529 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0286

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Credit booms are more damaging for export performance when paired with real exchange-rate appreciation. Domestic credit excess and currency overvaluation should jointly squeeze tradable-sector competitiveness more than either condition alone.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED only if the credit_gap x reer_appreciation coefficient is negative at p<=0.10 with at least 700 observations and 20 countries. REFUTED if the interaction is positive at p<=0.10.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_bis_credit_gap_reer_appreciation_export_squeeze_panel

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.007529
  • Std error: 0.003434
  • p-value: 0.0286
  • Observations: 1098, countries: 40
  • Within R²: 0.0135
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG → export_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8722)
  • bis:WS_CREDIT_GAP → credit_gap (treatment, publisher=bis, n=1914)
  • bis:WS_EER → reer_appreciation (treatment, publisher=bis, n=2112)
  • world_bank_wdi:BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS → current_account_balance_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=7621)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:35+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

This is a predeclared interaction extension of existing BIS credit-gap and EER export screens.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.