IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·bis_credit_gap_unemployment_lag_panel_1970_2025

High BIS credit-gap episodes predict unemployment increases over the following two years.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/bis_credit_gap_unemployment_lag_panel_1970_2025

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: forward outcome from WDI or BIS local vintage']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether high credit gap is actually linked to better or worse fwd unemployment change 2y from 1964 to 2026.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: forward outcome from WDI or BIS local vintage']

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 42 country or place units from 1964 to 2026, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • High credit gap
What we checked
  • Fwd unemployment change 2y
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

12 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/bis_credit_gap_unemployment_lag_panel_1970_2025
1007550250196419952026AUSAUTBELBRACANCHECHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show fwd_unemployment_change_2y across 42 sampled countries over 1964–2026.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for bis_credit_gap_unemployment_lag_panel_1970_2025. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/bis_credit_gap_unemployment_lag_panel_1970_2025/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:09Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

High BIS credit-gap episodes predict unemployment increases over the following two years.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported only if the coefficient on high_credit_gap and the raw treated-control contrast clear the predeclared direction and magnitude gates.

formal test & threshold
test:      bis_credit_gap_unemployment_lag_panel_1970_2025
threshold: {"coef_min": 0.25, "mean_diff_min": 0.25, "min_countries": 20, "min_observations": 700, "p_max": 0.1}

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
42 countries · 1964 – 2026
Evidence type
associational

Compact panel screen with country and calendar-year fixed effects. Standard errors clustered by country.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
fwd_unemployment_change_2y
outcome
constructed:forward outcome from WDI or BIS local vintagetier 5
forward_change_or_forward_average
high_credit_gap
treatment
bis:WS_CREDIT_GAPtier 2
bis:WS_DSRtier 2
bis:WS_EERtier 2
bis:WS_SPPtier 2
threshold_or_interaction_predeclared_in_runner
unemployment_rate
control
world_bank_wdi or BIS local vintagelevel

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — bis_credit_gap_unemployment_lag_panel_1970_2025

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: forward outcome from WDI or BIS local vintage']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: High BIS credit-gap episodes predict unemployment increases over the following two years.
  • Falsification rule: Supported only if the coefficient on high_credit_gap and the raw treated-control contrast clear the predeclared direction and magnitude gates.
  • Falsification test: bis_credit_gap_unemployment_lag_panel_1970_2025

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: forward outcome from WDI or BIS local vintage']

Variables resolved

  • bis:WS_CREDIT_GAP; bis:WS_DSR; bis:WS_EER; bis:WS_SPP → high_credit_gap (treatment, publisher=bis, n=1914)

Variables missing data

  • constructed: forward outcome from WDI or BIS local vintage (outcome, name=fwd_unemployment_change_2y) — vintage not on disk
  • world_bank_wdi or BIS local vintage (controls, name=unemployment_rate) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:09+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Generated and runnable via engine/runs/bis_credit_gap_unemployment_lag_panel_1970_2025/replication.py from local BIS/WDI vintages.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.