IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·bis_household_dsr_unemployment_surge_panel

In BIS/WDI country panels, high household debt-service stress is followed by larger unemployment increases over the next two years.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/bis_household_dsr_unemployment_surge_panel

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local pinned vintage panel']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether high household dsr is actually linked to better or worse fwd unemployment change 2y from 1999 to 2023.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local pinned vintage panel']

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 17 country or place units from 1999 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • High household dsr
What we checked
  • Fwd unemployment change 2y
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

6 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/bis_household_dsr_unemployment_surge_panel
1007550250199920112023AUSBELCANDEUDNKESPFIN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show fwd_unemployment_change_2y across 17 sampled countries over 1999–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for bis_household_dsr_unemployment_surge_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/bis_household_dsr_unemployment_surge_panel/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

New Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:26Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

In BIS/WDI country panels, high household debt-service stress is followed by larger unemployment increases over the next two years.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

High DSR is BIS household DSR >= 12 percent and >= country p75; outcome is WDI unemployment-rate change from year t to t+2.

formal test & threshold
test:      bis_household_dsr_unemployment_surge_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
17 countries · 1999 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Generated Worker C first-tranche local-data panel verdict.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
fwd_unemployment_change_2y
outcome
local pinned vintage panelHigh DSR is BIS household DSR >= 12 percent and >= country p75; outcome is WDI unemployment-rate change from year t to t+2.
high_household_dsr
treatment
local pinned vintage panelas predeclared in threshold

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — bis_household_dsr_unemployment_surge_panel

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local pinned vintage panel']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: In BIS/WDI country panels, high household debt-service stress is followed by larger unemployment increases over the next two years.
  • Falsification rule: High DSR is BIS household DSR >= 12 percent and >= country p75; outcome is WDI unemployment-rate change from year t to t+2.
  • Falsification test: bis_household_dsr_unemployment_surge_panel

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local pinned vintage panel']

Variables resolved

Variables missing data

  • local pinned vintage panel (outcome, name=fwd_unemployment_change_2y) — vintage not on disk
  • local pinned vintage panel (treatment, name=high_household_dsr) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:26+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Runnable via engine/runs/bis_household_dsr_unemployment_surge_panel/replication.py. Uses only pinned local BIS/OECD/WGI/WDI vintages.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.