IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·bis_policy_rate_credit_gap_compression_panel

In BIS panels, policy-rate tightening episodes are followed by compression in the BIS credit-to-GDP gap over the next eight quarters.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/bis_policy_rate_credit_gap_compression_panel

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local pinned vintage panel']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether policy tightening 2pp is actually linked to better or worse fwd credit gap change 8q from 1958 to 2023.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local pinned vintage panel']

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 38 country or place units from 1958 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Policy tightening 2pp
What we checked
  • Fwd credit gap change 8q
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

6 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/bis_policy_rate_credit_gap_compression_panel
1007550250195819912023AUSAUTBELBRACANCHECHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show fwd_credit_gap_change_8q across 38 sampled countries over 1958–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for bis_policy_rate_credit_gap_compression_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/bis_policy_rate_credit_gap_compression_panel/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Chicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:10Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

In BIS panels, policy-rate tightening episodes are followed by compression in the BIS credit-to-GDP gap over the next eight quarters.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Policy tightening is a >= 2 pp rise in BIS central-bank policy rates over four quarters; outcome is credit-gap change from t to t+8 quarters.

formal test & threshold
test:      bis_policy_rate_credit_gap_compression_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
38 countries · 1958 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Generated Worker C first-tranche local-data panel verdict.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
fwd_credit_gap_change_8q
outcome
local pinned vintage panelPolicy tightening is a >= 2 pp rise in BIS central-bank policy rates over four quarters; outcome is credit-gap change from t to t+8 quarters.
policy_tightening_2pp
treatment
local pinned vintage panelas predeclared in threshold

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — bis_policy_rate_credit_gap_compression_panel

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local pinned vintage panel']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: In BIS panels, policy-rate tightening episodes are followed by compression in the BIS credit-to-GDP gap over the next eight quarters.
  • Falsification rule: Policy tightening is a >= 2 pp rise in BIS central-bank policy rates over four quarters; outcome is credit-gap change from t to t+8 quarters.
  • Falsification test: bis_policy_rate_credit_gap_compression_panel

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local pinned vintage panel']

Variables resolved

Variables missing data

  • local pinned vintage panel (outcome, name=fwd_credit_gap_change_8q) — vintage not on disk
  • local pinned vintage panel (treatment, name=policy_tightening_2pp) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:10+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Runnable via engine/runs/bis_policy_rate_credit_gap_compression_panel/replication.py. Uses only pinned local BIS/OECD/WGI/WDI vintages.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.