IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·bis_reer_appreciation_trade_open_disinflation_panel

Real effective exchange-rate appreciations predict lower inflation, and the disinflationary association is stronger in more trade-open economies where import-price pass-through is more exposed to currency movements.

PARTIALengine/runs/bis_reer_appreciation_trade_open_disinflation_panel

PARTIAL — coef=-0.0006454, p=0.451 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether reer appreciation is actually linked to better or worse inflation from 1970 to 2025.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-0.0006454, p=0.451 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 42 country or place units from 1970 to 2025, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Reer appreciation
  • Trade openness
What we checked
  • Inflation
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/bis_reer_appreciation_trade_open_disinflation_panel
1007550250197019982025AUSAUTBELBRACANCHECHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show inflation across 42 sampled countries over 1970–2025.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for bis_reer_appreciation_trade_open_disinflation_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/bis_reer_appreciation_trade_open_disinflation_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:11Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Real effective exchange-rate appreciations predict lower inflation, and the disinflationary association is stronger in more trade-open economies where import-price pass-through is more exposed to currency movements.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED only if the interaction coefficient is negative at p<=0.10 with at least 900 observations and 20 countries. REFUTED if the interaction is positive at p<=0.10.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_bis_reer_appreciation_trade_open_disinflation_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
42 countries · 1970 – 2025
Evidence type
associational

Primary estimand is reer_appreciation x trade_openness. Negative values support stronger import-price disinflation in open economies.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
inflation
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
level
reer_appreciation
treatment
bis:WS_EERtier 2
annual_pct_change
trade_openness
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
gdp_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — bis_reer_appreciation_trade_open_disinflation_panel

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-0.0006454, p=0.451 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Real effective exchange-rate appreciations predict lower inflation, and the disinflationary association is stronger in more trade-open economies where import-price pass-through is more exposed to currency movements.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED only if the interaction coefficient is negative at p<=0.10 with at least 900 observations and 20 countries. REFUTED if the interaction is positive at p<=0.10.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_bis_reer_appreciation_trade_open_disinflation_panel

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.0006454
  • Std error: 0.0008555
  • p-value: 0.451
  • Observations: 1020, countries: 34
  • Within R²: -0.0322
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → inflation (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=7550)
  • bis:WS_EER → reer_appreciation (treatment, publisher=bis, n=2112)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → gdp_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:11+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

This is the appreciation-side equivalent of a depreciation pass-through test, chosen because the generic runner can directly compute EER annual appreciation.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.