IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·bls_minimum_wage_bite_low_tail_threshold_panel

Very high minimum-wage bite ratios relative to the state low-wage tail predict weaker total employment growth.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/bls_minimum_wage_bite_low_tail_threshold_panel

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

When minimum wages rise high relative to normal local pay, do lower-skill workers keep their jobs, or does hiring fall at the margin?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2015 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for unit and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • High low tail bite
What we checked
  • Total emp growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/bls_minimum_wage_bite_low_tail_threshold_panel
1007550250201520202024USA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show total_emp_growth across 1 sampled countries over 2015–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for bls_minimum_wage_bite_low_tail_threshold_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/bls_minimum_wage_bite_low_tail_threshold_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:26Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Very high minimum-wage bite ratios relative to the state low-wage tail predict weaker total employment growth.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported only if `high_low_tail_bite` clears coefficient and raw contrast gates.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_bls_minimum_wage_bite_low_tail_threshold_panel
threshold: {"coef_max": -0.2, "min_observations": 250, "min_units": 45, "p_max": 0.1, "raw_diff_max": -0.2}

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
unit, year
Clustering
unit
Sample
1 countries · 2015 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
total_emp_growth
outcome
local landed vintagesee runner
high_low_tail_bite
treatment
local landed vintagesee runner
bite_ratio
control
local landed vintagelevel or growth

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — bls_minimum_wage_bite_low_tail_threshold_panel

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Very high minimum-wage bite ratios relative to the state low-wage tail predict weaker total employment growth.
  • Falsification rule: Supported only if high_low_tail_bite clears coefficient and raw contrast gates.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_bls_minimum_wage_bite_low_tail_threshold_panel

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['local landed vintage']

Variables resolved

Variables missing data

  • local landed vintage (outcome, name=total_emp_growth) — vintage not on disk
  • local landed vintage (treatment, name=high_low_tail_bite) — vintage not on disk
  • local landed vintage (controls, name=bite_ratio) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:26+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Generated by A4 Batch 07-09 runner; reproducible via engine/runs/bls_minimum_wage_bite_low_tail_threshold_panel/replication.py.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.