IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·bolivia_arce_stabilisation_2020_2024

Bolivia's 2020-2024 Arce administration inherited a depleted-FX-reserve, declining-gas-export economy and attempted to defend the boliviano-USD peg through capital controls, fuel subsidies, and quasi-fiscal central- bank intervention.

The pre-registered claim is that this stabilisation attempt failed on its own terms by 2023-2024: parallel exchange-rate premium widened above 30% by mid-2024, FX reserves at the central bank fell below 3 months of imports, fuel-import shortages produced measurable inflation pass-through, and net real-GDP growth turned negative on a per-capita basis. The mechanism is that defending an overvalued peg without underlying export earnings is fiscally and monetarily unsustainable, and the cost falls on import-dependent consumption.

PARTIALengine/runs/bolivia_arce_stabilisation_2020_2024

PARTIAL — shape=pre_post, |Δ_log|=4.67; threshold 30.0%, observed 467.3%; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether the policy story survives a real-world data check from 2014 to 2024.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=pre_post, |Δ_log|=4.67; threshold 30.0%, observed 467.3%; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2014 to 2024, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Cpi inflation yoy
  • Fx reserves months imports
  • Log income pc constant
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/bolivia_arce_stabilisation_2020_2024
1007550250201420192024BOL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show cpi_inflation_yoy across 1 sampled countries over 2014–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for bolivia_arce_stabilisation_2020_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/bolivia_arce_stabilisation_2020_2024/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:11:18Z

Bolivia's 2020-2024 Arce administration inherited a depleted-FX-reserve, declining-gas-export economy and attempted to defend the boliviano-USD peg through capital controls, fuel subsidies, and quasi-fiscal central- bank intervention. The pre-registered claim is that this stabilisation attempt failed on its own terms by 2023-2024: parallel exchange-rate premium widened above 30% by mid-2024, FX reserves at the central bank fell below 3 months of imports, fuel-import shortages produced measurable inflation pass-through, and net real-GDP growth turned negative on a per-capita basis. The mechanism is that defending an overvalued peg without underlying export earnings is fiscally and monetarily unsustainable, and the cost falls on import-dependent consumption.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if FX reserves remained above 6 months of imports through 2024, OR cpi_inflation_yoy remained below 5% through 2024, OR per-capita real GDP growth 2022-2024 averaged above 1.5% annualised. Any of these three would indicate the stabilisation held; combined failure across all three is the claim.

formal test & threshold
test:      descriptive_macro_pressure_metrics
threshold: fx_reserves_months_imports(BOL, 2024) < 6 AND cpi_inflation_yoy(BOL, 2024) > 5 AND avg_real_gdp_pc_growth(BOL, 2022-2024) < 1.5

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
1 countries · 2014 – 2024
Evidence type
causal

Primary: descriptive trajectory of FX reserves, current account, inflation, and per-capita GDP showing the 2022-2024 stabilisation attempt's outcomes. Secondary: pre-post comparison of inflation and reserves around the 2023 capital-controls policy package.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
cpi_inflation_yoy
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
level
fx_reserves_months_imports
outcome
imf:FI_RES_TOTL_MOtier 2
level
log_gdp_pc_constant
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
current_account_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZStier 2
level
hydrocarbon_rents_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZStier 2
level
oil_price
control
fred:DCOILBRENTEUtier 1
log_level
us_policy_rate
control
fred:FEDFUNDStier 1
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — bolivia_arce_stabilisation_2020_2024

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=pre_post, |Δ_log|=4.67; threshold 30.0%, observed 467.3%; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Bolivia's 2020-2024 Arce administration inherited a depleted-FX-reserve, declining-gas-export economy and attempted to defend the boliviano-USD peg through capital controls, fuel subsidies, and quasi-fiscal central- bank intervention. The pre-registered claim is that this stabilisation attempt failed on its own terms by 2023-2024: parallel exchange-rate premium widened above 30% by mid-2024, FX reserves at the central bank fell below 3 months of imports, fuel-import shortages produced measurable inflation pass-through, and net real-GDP growth turned negative on a per-capita basis. The mechanism is that defending an overvalued peg without underlying export earnings is fiscally and monetarily unsustainable, and the cost falls on import-dependent consumption.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if FX reserves remained above 6 months of imports through 2024, OR cpi_inflation_yoy remained below 5% through 2024, OR per-capita real GDP growth 2022-2024 averaged above 1.5% annualised. Any of these three would indicate the stabilisation held; combined failure across all three is the claim.
  • Falsification test: descriptive_macro_pressure_metrics

Comparison

  • shape: pre_post
  • country: BOL
  • cut_year: 2020
  • pre_mean: 237.528049967279
  • post_mean: 2.2202216584719983
  • delta: -235.30782830880702
  • log_delta: -4.67267868456777
  • n_pre: 60
  • n_post: 5

Extracted threshold: {'percent': 30.0}

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → cpi_inflation_yoy (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc_constant (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14131)

Variables missing data

  • imf:FI_RES_TOTL_MO (outcome, name=fx_reserves_months_imports)
  • world_bank_wdi:BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS (outcome, name=current_account_share_gdp)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS (outcome, name=hydrocarbon_rents_share_gdp)
  • fred:DCOILBRENTEU (controls, name=oil_price)
  • fred:FEDFUNDS (controls, name=us_policy_rate)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-04-30T10:11:18+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Single-country time-series spec (descriptive). The Bolivia-specific case is the test; donor-pool synth_did is impractical for a peg-defence episode without a clean counterfactual in the region.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.