IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·brain_drain_state_directed_economies

Skilled emigration rates (tertiary-educated migrants as a share of the tertiary-educated domestic population) are higher from countries with weaker market opportunity (lower EFW business freedom, higher entry barriers, weaker property rights) than from peers at similar income levels with stronger market institutions, even when public investment in education and research is high.

The claim applies to middle-income and emerging economies 1990-2020.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/brain_drain_state_directed_economies

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:docquiermarfouk_skilled_emigration; world_bank_wdi:SM.EMI.TERT.ZS']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:docquiermarfouk_skilled_emigration; world_bank_wdi:SM.EMI.TERT.ZS']

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 30 country or place units from 1990 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Business freedom index
  • Entry barrier index
What we checked
  • Skilled emigration rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/brain_drain_state_directed_economies
1007550250199020052020ZAFBRAARGURYCOLPERCHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show skilled_emigration_rate across 30 sampled countries over 1990–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for brain_drain_state_directed_economies. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/brain_drain_state_directed_economies/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:27Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Skilled emigration rates (tertiary-educated migrants as a share of the tertiary-educated domestic population) are higher from countries with weaker market opportunity (lower EFW business freedom, higher entry barriers, weaker property rights) than from peers at similar income levels with stronger market institutions, even when public investment in education and research is high. The claim applies to middle-income and emerging economies 1990-2020.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if the coefficient on market-opportunity proxies (business freedom, entry barriers, property rights) is positive and significant (p < 0.10) for skilled emigration — i.e., more market freedom predicts more brain drain — after controlling for income and public R&D spending.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_skilled_emigration_market_opportunity_1990_2020
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
30 countries · 1990 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
skilled_emigration_rate
outcome
constructed:docquiermarfouk_skilled_emigration; world_bank_wdi:SM.EMI.TERT.ZStier 5
level
business_freedom_index
treatment
fraser_efw:5a_business_regulationstier 4
level
entry_barrier_index
treatment
oecd_pmr:barriers_to_entrytier 4
level
property_rights_protection
treatment
heritage_ief:property_rightstier 4
level
log_gdp_per_capita_ppp
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
public_education_spending_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2
level
research_spending_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZStier 2
level
common_language_index
control
constructed:melitz_language_proximitytier 5
level
conflict_proximity
control
ucdp:gedtier 3
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — brain_drain_state_directed_economies

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:docquiermarfouk_skilled_emigration; world_bank_wdi:SM.EMI.TERT.ZS']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Skilled emigration rates (tertiary-educated migrants as a share of the tertiary-educated domestic population) are higher from countries with weaker market opportunity (lower EFW business freedom, higher entry barriers, weaker property rights) than from peers at similar income levels with stronger market institutions, even when public investment in education and research is high. The claim applies to middle-income and emerging economies 1990-2020.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if the coefficient on market-opportunity proxies (business freedom, entry barriers, property rights) is positive and significant (p < 0.10) for skilled emigration — i.e., more market freedom predicts more brain drain — after controlling for income and public R&D spending.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_skilled_emigration_market_opportunity_1990_2020

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed:docquiermarfouk_skilled_emigration; world_bank_wdi:SM.EMI.TERT.ZS']

Variables resolved

  • oecd_pmr:barriers_to_entry → entry_barrier_index (treatment, publisher=oecd_pmr, n=105)
  • heritage_efw:property_rights → property_rights_protection (treatment, publisher=heritage_ief, n=547)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita_ppp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • world_bank_wdi:SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS → public_education_spending_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6235)
  • world_bank_wdi:GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS → research_spending_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=3140)
  • ucdp:ged → conflict_proximity (controls, publisher=ucdp, n=1978)

Variables missing data

  • constructed:docquiermarfouk_skilled_emigration; world_bank_wdi:SM.EMI.TERT.ZS (outcome, name=skilled_emigration_rate) — vintage not on disk
  • fraser_efw:5a_business_regulations (treatment, name=business_freedom_index) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed:melitz_language_proximity (controls, name=common_language_index) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:27+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.