IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·bretton_woods_fiscal_space_growth

The 1945-1973 Bretton Woods era sustained higher trend growth and lower unemployment across OECD than the post-1973 floating-rate era because capital-account controls preserved fiscal space for demand management.

REFUTEDengine/runs/bretton_woods_fiscal_space_growth

REFUTED — coef=-0.001735 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.0314

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether bretton woods regime indicator is actually linked to better or worse real income per capita growth from 1945 to 1990.

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=-0.001735 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.0314

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 16 country or place units from 1945 to 1990, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Bretton woods regime indicator
  • Capital account openness chinn ito
What we checked
  • Real income per capita growth
  • Real income growth
  • Unemployment rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/bretton_woods_fiscal_space_growth
1007550250194519681990USAGBRFRADEUITANLDSWE
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_per_capita_growth across 16 sampled countries over 1945–1990.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for bretton_woods_fiscal_space_growth. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/bretton_woods_fiscal_space_growth/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Post-Keynesianwins if SUPPORTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:27Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

The 1945-1973 Bretton Woods era sustained higher trend growth and lower unemployment across OECD than the post-1973 floating-rate era because capital-account controls preserved fiscal space for demand management.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      OECD panel FE regression of real GDP growth and unemployment rate on Bretton-Woods regime dummy 1945-1990 with country/year FE; supported if regime coefficient on growth >+1pp at p<0.10 and on unemployment <-1pp at p<0.10.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
16 countries · 1945 – 1990
Evidence type
associational

OECD cross-country panel comparing 1945-1973 Bretton Woods era versus 1973-2000 floating-rate era on real GDP growth and unemployment, with country FE. Treats regime as institutional indicator; clustering by country.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_per_capita_growth
outcome
maddison:gdppctier 3
log_yoy
real_gdp_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
unemployment_rate
outcome
jst:unemptier 3
level
bretton_woods_regime_indicator
treatment
ilzetzki_reinhart_rogoff:exchange_rate_arrangementstier 3
indicator
capital_account_openness_chinn_ito
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
government_spending_share_of_gdp
control
imf:G_X_G01_GDP_PTtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — bretton_woods_fiscal_space_growth

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=-0.001735 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.0314

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The 1945-1973 Bretton Woods era sustained higher trend growth and lower unemployment across OECD than the post-1973 floating-rate era because capital-account controls preserved fiscal space for demand management.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: OECD panel FE regression of real GDP growth and unemployment rate on Bretton-Woods regime dummy 1945-1990 with country/year FE; supported if regime coefficient on growth >+1pp at p<0.10 and on unemployment <-1pp at p<0.10.

Estimate

  • Method: statsmodels OLS FE fallback (linearmodels failed: exog does not have full column rank. If you wish to proceed with model estimation irrespective of the numerical accuracy of coefficient estimates, you can set check_rank=False.)
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.001735
  • Std error: 0.0008062
  • p-value: 0.0314
  • Observations: 286, countries: 12
  • Within R²: 0.973
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • maddison:gdppc → real_gdp_per_capita_growth (outcome, publisher=maddison, n=19706)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • jst:unemp → unemployment_rate (outcome, publisher=jst, n=2718)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → capital_account_openness_chinn_ito (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)
  • imf:G_X_G01_GDP_PT → government_spending_share_of_gdp (controls, publisher=imf, n=7965)

Variables missing data

  • ilzetzki_reinhart_rogoff:exchange_rate_arrangements (treatment, name=bretton_woods_regime_indicator) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:27+00:00

Notes

Stub seeded from a Post-Keynesian school prediction about Bretton Woods era growth/employment via capital-control-preserved fiscal space. Multiple non-Bretton-Woods structural factors (postwar catchup, demographics) confound; needs human review of identification strategy.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.