IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·business_freedom_employer_entry_employment_panel

Across broad country panels from 1995 to 2024, higher business freedom and lower business-regulation burdens predict higher employer entry, higher new-business density, and higher working-age employment rates.

The directional claim is that a one-standard-deviation increase in business-freedom measures predicts at least 0.3 additional new registered businesses per 1,000 working-age people and a positive employment-rate coefficient after controlling for income, education, trade openness, and rule of law.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/business_freedom_employer_entry_employment_panel

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (0)

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. insufficient observations after listwise deletion (0)

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 38 country or place units from 1995 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Business freedom
  • Business regulation freedom
What we checked
  • New business density
  • Employer share of employment
  • Working age employment rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/business_freedom_employer_entry_employment_panel
1007550250199520102024AUSAUTBELCANCHECHLCOL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show new_business_density across 38 sampled countries over 1995–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for business_freedom_employer_entry_employment_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/business_freedom_employer_entry_employment_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit e29141a · 2026-05-22T17:36:53Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:27Z

Across broad country panels from 1995 to 2024, higher business freedom and lower business-regulation burdens predict higher employer entry, higher new-business density, and higher working-age employment rates. The directional claim is that a one-standard-deviation increase in business-freedom measures predicts at least 0.3 additional new registered businesses per 1,000 working-age people and a positive employment-rate coefficient after controlling for income, education, trade openness, and rule of law.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted if business-freedom coefficients are non-positive for new-business density and employer share, or if the estimated one-standard-deviation effect is below +0.3 businesses per 1,000 working-age people with p > 0.10 in the primary specification. Employment-rate neutrality alone is not refutation if entry outcomes are positive.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_business_freedom_employer_entry
threshold: beta_business_freedom_new_business_density_sd >= +0.3 and beta_business_freedom_employer_share > 0

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
38 countries · 1995 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Estimate separate panel-FE models for new-business density, employer share, and working-age employment. Robustness checks replace Heritage with Fraser EFW, lag treatment by three years, and exclude high-income financial centres where registration data may reflect tax planning rather than operating firms.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
new_business_density
outcome
world_bank_wdi:IC.BUS.NDNS.ZStier 2
level
employer_share_of_employment
outcome
ilostat:EMP_2EMP_SEX_STE_NB_Atier 2
share_pct
working_age_employment_rate
outcome
ilostat:EMP_2EMP_SEX_AGE_RT_Atier 2
level_pct
business_freedom
treatment
heritage_ief:business_freedomtier 4
z_score
business_regulation_freedom
treatment
fraser_efw:5a_business_regulationstier 4
z_score
log_real_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
tertiary_enrolment
control
world_bank_wdi:SE.TER.ENRRtier 2
level_pct
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level_pct
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — business_freedom_employer_entry_employment_panel

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (0)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Across broad country panels from 1995 to 2024, higher business freedom and lower business-regulation burdens predict higher employer entry, higher new-business density, and higher working-age employment rates. The directional claim is that a one-standard-deviation increase in business-freedom measures predicts at least 0.3 additional new registered businesses per 1,000 working-age people and a positive employment-rate coefficient after controlling for income, education, trade openness, and rule of law.
  • Falsification rule: Refuted if business-freedom coefficients are non-positive for new-business density and employer share, or if the estimated one-standard-deviation effect is below +0.3 businesses per 1,000 working-age people with p > 0.10 in the primary specification. Employment-rate neutrality alone is not refutation if entry outcomes are positive.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_business_freedom_employer_entry

Estimate

  • Error: insufficient observations after listwise deletion (0)

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:IC.BUS.NDNS.ZS → new_business_density (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2451)
  • ilostat:EMP_2EMP_SEX_STE_NB_A → employer_share_of_employment (outcome, publisher=ilostat, n=9646)
  • ilostat:EMP_2EMP_SEX_AGE_RT_A → working_age_employment_rate (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8071)
  • heritage_ief:business_freedom → business_freedom (treatment, publisher=heritage_ief, n=534)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_real_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:SE.TER.ENRR → tertiary_enrolment (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=7217)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Variables missing data

  • fraser_efw:5a_business_regulations (treatment, name=business_regulation_freedom) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:27+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Candidate Worker C spec testing whether market entry and entrepreneurship margins outperform labour-market-control accounts of job creation.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.