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first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z

run generated · 2026-05-17T20:57:45Z

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Universal child-benefit / expanded child tax credit expansions (US ARP 2021, UK pre-2013 child benefit) reduced child poverty rates by measurable magnitudes in real time.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the US Census SPM under-18 poverty rate falls by at least 3.0 percentage points from 2020 to 2021 and rebounds by at least 2.0 percentage points from 2021 to 2022, both clearing a p<0.10 normal-approximation check using Census 90% MOEs, and the UK OECD IDD under-18 PL50 poverty rate is at least 1.0 percentage point higher on average in 2014-2019 than in 2011-2013 after the child-benefit means-test tightening. PARTIAL if only one country leg clears. REFUTED if the US drop/rebound are both below 1.5 percentage points or the UK sign check moves more than 1.0 percentage point in the opposite direction.

formal test & threshold

test:      Exact descriptive US SPM pre/expansion/expiration gate plus UK OECD IDD post-tightening child-poverty sign check.

Method

Template: did_callaway_santanna
Fixed effects: country, year
Clustering: country
Sample: 2 countries · 2000 – 2022
Evidence type: associational

Staggered-treatment DiD across the US ARP 2021 CTC expansion and UK pre-2013 child-benefit episodes. Callaway-Sant'Anna handles cohort heterogeneity. Robustness: event-study around each policy enactment date.

Data

Variable	Source	Transform
us_spm_child_poverty_rate outcome	us_census:spm_child_poverty_ratetier 1	level
child_poverty_rate outcome	oecd:DSD_IDDtier 2	level
child_poverty_rate_world_bank_proxy outcome	world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.NAHCtier 2	level
child_benefit_expansion_event treatment	derived:policy_event_datestier 4	indicator
gdp_per_capita_ppp control	world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2	log
unemployment_rate control	world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2	level
median_household_income_proxy control	world_bank_wdi:NY.GNP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2	log

● ready · ● pending · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - child_benefit_expansion_child_poverty_effect

Verdict: SUPPORTED - US SPM child poverty fell 4.5pp and rebounded 7.2pp; UK child poverty rose 2.1pp after the 2013 tightening

Exact Benchmark

US SPM child poverty drop, 2020-2021: 4.5 pp.
US SPM child poverty rebound, 2021-2022: 7.2 pp.
UK OECD PL50 under-18 poverty: 10.2% (2011-2013) to 12.2% (2014-2019), delta 2.1 pp.

The UK leg is a sign check around the 2013 means-test tightening; the original microdata DiD remains unwired locally.

Generated by engine/runs/child_benefit_expansion_child_poverty_effect/replication.py at 2026-05-17T20:57:45+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Maps the democratic-socialist school's child-benefit/child-poverty claim to a local-data exact benchmark on US ARP-2021 CTC and UK pre-2013 child benefit. The original staggered DiD remains a richer target once harmonised CPS/FRS microdata are wired.