IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·chile_chicago_boys_monetary_stabilisation_effect

Pinochet-era Chile's monetary stabilisation (post-1975, advised by Chicago Boys) produced lower inflation and higher growth than contemporaneous Latin American countries using heterodox stabilisation.

PARTIALengine/runs/chile_chicago_boys_monetary_stabilisation_effect

PARTIAL — mean_gap=-728, |gap|/pre_sd=3.2, p_perm=0.667 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether chile chicago stabilisation indicator is actually linked to better or worse cpi inflation from 1970 to 1990.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=-728, |gap|/pre_sd=3.2, p_perm=0.667 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 8 country or place units from 1970 to 1990, using a synthetic control design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Chile chicago stabilisation indicator
What we checked
  • Cpi inflation
  • Real income per capita
  • Inflation volatility
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/chile_chicago_boys_monetary_stabilisation_effect
1007550250197019801990CHLARGBRAPERURYBOLMEX
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show cpi_inflation across 8 sampled countries over 1970–1990.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for chile_chicago_boys_monetary_stabilisation_effect. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/chile_chicago_boys_monetary_stabilisation_effect/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Chicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-05-15T20:30:38Z

Pinochet-era Chile's monetary stabilisation (post-1975, advised by Chicago Boys) produced lower inflation and higher growth than contemporaneous Latin American countries using heterodox stabilisation.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      Synthetic control of Chile 1975-1990 vs LATAM donor pool (ARG, BRA, PER, URY, BOL, MEX); cumulative inflation gap >20pp lower and GDP gap positive with placebo p<0.10 supports.

Method

Template
synthetic_control
Clustering
country
Sample
8 countries · 1970 – 1990
Evidence type
associational

Stub-level estimator pin for runnability audit. Synthetic-control of Chile 1975-1990 against a donor pool of LatAm comparators (ARG, BRA, PER, URY, BOL, MEX) using heterodox stabilisation. Outcomes: CPI inflation and real GDP per capita. Falsification rule and variables block remain to be filled when this stub is promoted from draft.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
cpi_inflation
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
imf:PCPIPCHtier 2
pct_change_yoy
real_gdp_per_capita
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
maddison:gdp_per_capita_2011_intltier 3
log_level
inflation_volatility
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
rolling_3yr_stddev
chile_chicago_stabilisation_indicator
treatment
constructed:binary = 1 for CHL from 1975 (post-El Ladrillo / Chicago Boys appointments)tier 5
binary
terms_of_trade
control
imf_pcps:PALLFNFtier 1
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
log_diff
pre_treatment_inflation
control
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
lag_avg_1970_1974
copper_price_index
control
imf_pcps:PCOPPtier 1
log_diff

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — chile_chicago_boys_monetary_stabilisation_effect

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=-728, |gap|/pre_sd=3.2, p_perm=0.667 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Pinochet-era Chile's monetary stabilisation (post-1975, advised by Chicago Boys) produced lower inflation and higher growth than contemporaneous Latin American countries using heterodox stabilisation.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: CHL
  • event_year: 1975
  • n_donors: 5
  • donor_weights (top): {'BOL': 0.9024, 'URY': 0.0976, 'PER': 0.0, 'MEX': 0.0, 'COL': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 272.75500980128675
  • pre_period_sd: 229.1249738680899
  • mean_post_gap: -727.9539605220731
  • end_period_gap: -0.39659053129966537
  • post_period_years: [1975, 1990]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.6666666666666666
  • n_placebos: 5
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG; imf:PCPIPCH → cpi_inflation (outcome, n=9066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD; maddison:gdp_per_capita_2011_intl → real_gdp_per_capita (outcome, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → inflation_volatility (outcome, n=9066)
  • constructed: binary = 1 for CHL from 1975 (post-El Ladrillo / Chicago Boys appointments) → chile_chicago_stabilisation_indicator (treatment, n=168)
  • imf_pcps:PALLFNF; world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WD → terms_of_trade (controls, n=288)
  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → pre_treatment_inflation (controls, n=9066)
  • imf_pcps:PCOPP → copper_price_index (controls, n=288)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-05-15T20:30:38+00:00

Notes

Origin is auto-generated coverage-gap stub seeded from Chicago-monetarist claims about Pinochet-era stabilisation outperforming heterodox LatAm peers. Human review required before promotion.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.