Pre-registration
Chilean post-1990 growth outpaces earlier Pinochet-era growth despite similar market orientation, reflecting democratic-institutional upgrades more than policy continuity.
Falsification criterion — what would disprove this
This hypothesis is considered falsified if:
The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
formal test & threshold
test: CHL 1973-2023 single-country pre-1990 vs post-1990 multi-metric checklist on log GDP per capita, TFP (PWT), capital formation, rule-of-law (WGI), V-Dem democracy index; HAC SEs around 1990 break. Refute if post-1990 growth/TFP not higher than 1976-1989 mean once copper-price effects are netted out at p<0.10.
Method
- Template
multi_metric_checklist- Clustering
none- Sample
- 1 countries · 1973 – 2023
- Evidence type
- canonical_case_multi_metric
Single-country pre/post canonical case. Compares Pinochet-era (1973-1989) to democratic-era (1990-2023) growth, investment, TFP, and institutional- quality indicators. Pattern-match approach because the hypothesis is about democratic-institutional upgrades rather than a single policy lever.
Data
| Variable | Source | Transform |
|---|---|---|
log_gdp_pc_ppp outcome | world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2 | log |
tfp_index outcome | pwt:rtfpnatier 3 | level |
gross_capital_formation_pct_gdp outcome | world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2 | level |
rule_of_law outcome | wgi:RL.ESTtier 4 | level |
vdem_liberal_democracy outcome | vdem:v2x_libdemtier 4 | level |
polity_score outcome | polity5:polity2tier 4 | level |
post_1990_democratic_indicator treatment | constructed:indicator = 1 for years >= 1990 (return to democratic rule)tier 5 | indicator |
copper_price_index control | imf_pcps:PCOPPtier 1 | log |
trade_openness control | world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2 | level |
● ready · ● pending · ● reconstruct-needed
Detailed result card
Result card — chile_post_1990_institutional_premium
Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING
Reason: no canonical metrics available to evaluate
Pre-registered rule: SUPPORT if >= 7 of 0 metrics met; REFUTE if <= 3 met (impossible to hit support).
Counts: 0 MET · 0 NOT_MET · 0 PENDING_DATA · 0 PENDING_EVAL
Primary country: CHL
Metric-by-metric
| # | Metric | Status | Observed | Threshold | Notes | |---|---|:---:|---:|---|---|
Claim
Chilean post-1990 growth outpaces earlier Pinochet-era growth despite similar market orientation, reflecting democratic-institutional upgrades more than policy continuity.
Interpretation
Verdict is INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — 0 metric(s) cannot be evaluated because the underlying data source is not yet in the vintages pipeline, and 0 metric(s) have data but a threshold expression the auto-evaluator does not recognise (complex conditions, discrete event counts, cross-country gaps). Close these gaps then re-run.
Steelman live concerns
See `` for the strongest opposing arguments. Canonical-case multi-metric evidence is a pattern match, not a causal identification — the result card should be read as 'outcome trajectory matches the predicted pattern to degree X' rather than 'policy P caused the outcome'.
Provenance
Vintages pinned in manifest.yaml. Full per-metric diagnostics in diagnostics.json. Machine-readable results in metric_results.parquet.
Notes
Maps the institutionalism school's Chile-democratic-premium claim to a 1973-2023 pre/post pattern-match on growth, TFP, investment and institutional-quality indices. Estimator and prior set; full pre-registration awaits steelman + human sign-off.