IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·classical_gold_standard_vs_fiat_long_run_inflation_comparison

Pre-1914 classical-gold-standard episodes (excluding wartime suspensions) show lower long-run average inflation than comparable-length fiat-regime samples (post-1971) in the same or equivalent economies, even if short-run price-level volatility is higher under gold.

The test compares long-horizon CPI geometric means across regimes, controlling for wartime suspension windows.

PARTIALengine/runs/classical_gold_standard_vs_fiat_long_run_inflation_comparison

PARTIAL — shape=panel_summary, |Δ_log|=0.164, ratio=0.848; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether gold standard indicator is actually linked to better or worse cpi log yoy from 1870 to 2020.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=panel_summary, |Δ_log|=0.164, ratio=0.848; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 4 country or place units from 1870 to 2020, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Gold standard indicator
What we checked
  • Cpi log yoy
  • Cpi geometric mean window
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/classical_gold_standard_vs_fiat_long_run_inflation_comparison
1007550250187019452020GBRUSADEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show cpi_log_yoy across 4 sampled countries over 1870–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for classical_gold_standard_vs_fiat_long_run_inflation_comparison. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/classical_gold_standard_vs_fiat_long_run_inflation_comparison/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callChicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-15T20:30:40Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Pre-1914 classical-gold-standard episodes (excluding wartime suspensions) show lower long-run average inflation than comparable-length fiat-regime samples (post-1971) in the same or equivalent economies, even if short-run price-level volatility is higher under gold. The test compares long-horizon CPI geometric means across regimes, controlling for wartime suspension windows.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is SUPPORTED if geometric-mean CPI growth over the pre-1914 classical-gold-standard window (1870-1914 excluding wartime suspensions) is at least 1.5 percentage points lower than geometric-mean CPI growth over the post-1971 fiat window (1971-2020) in the same countries (GBR, USA, DEU, FRA). REFUTED if fiat-window CPI is lower or the gap is <0.5 percentage points.

formal test & threshold
test:      Compare geometric-mean CPI growth 1870-1914 vs 1971-2020 across GBR, USA, DEU, FRA excluding wartime suspensions; gold-window mean >=1.5pp lower with bootstrap-CI exclusion of zero supports.

Method

Template
descriptive
Sample
4 countries · 1870 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Long-horizon descriptive comparison of geometric-mean CPI growth across GBR/USA/DEU/FRA over (a) classical gold standard 1870-1914 excluding wartime suspensions and (b) post-Bretton-Woods fiat 1971-2020. Bootstrap CIs on the regime-mean differential. Caveat: short-run gold-standard volatility (banking panics, deflationary episodes) is not the discriminating test — long-run geometric mean is. Wartime suspensions excluded per pre-registered rule.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
cpi_log_yoy
outcome
jst:cpitier 3
log_yoy
cpi_geometric_mean_window
outcome
jst:cpitier 3
geometric_mean_window
gold_standard_indicator
treatment
ilzetzki_reinhart_rogoff:exchange_rate_regimetier 3
indicator
log_real_gdp_per_capita
control
maddison:rgdpnapctier 3
log
log_population
control
maddison:poptier 3
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — classical_gold_standard_vs_fiat_long_run_inflation_comparison

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=panel_summary, |Δ_log|=0.164, ratio=0.848; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Pre-1914 classical-gold-standard episodes (excluding wartime suspensions) show lower long-run average inflation than comparable-length fiat-regime samples (post-1971) in the same or equivalent economies, even if short-run price-level volatility is higher under gold. The test compares long-horizon CPI geometric means across regimes, controlling for wartime suspension windows.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is SUPPORTED if geometric-mean CPI growth over the pre-1914 classical-gold-standard window (1870-1914 excluding wartime suspensions) is at least 1.5 percentage points lower than geometric-mean CPI growth over the post-1971 fiat window (1971-2020) in the same countries (GBR, USA, DEU, FRA). REFUTED if fiat-window CPI is lower or the gap is <0.5 percentage points.
  • Falsification test: Compare geometric-mean CPI growth 1870-1914 vs 1971-2020 across GBR, USA, DEU, FRA excluding wartime suspensions; gold-window mean >=1.5pp lower with bootstrap-CI exclusion of zero supports.

Comparison

  • shape: panel_summary
  • treatment_country: GBR
  • treatment_value: 112.0
  • donor_pool_median: 132.0
  • ratio: 0.8484848484848485
  • log_diff: -0.16430305129127643
  • n_donor_countries: 3
  • end_year_window: [2015, 2020]

Extracted threshold: {'pp': 1.5}

Variables resolved

  • jst:cpi → cpi_log_yoy (outcome, publisher=jst, n=2718)
  • jst:cpi → cpi_geometric_mean_window (outcome, publisher=jst, n=2718)
  • maddison:rgdpnapc → log_real_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=maddison, n=19706)
  • maddison:pop → log_population (controls, publisher=maddison, n=19706)

Variables missing data

  • ilzetzki_reinhart_rogoff:exchange_rate_regime (treatment, name=gold_standard_indicator)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-05-15T20:30:40+00:00

Notes

Origin is Phase 4E coverage-gap split to give the Austrian classical-gold-standard steelman a testable long-run inflation comparison vs post-1971 fiat. Human review required before promotion.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.