Pre-registration
Across a small set of identifiable zoning-reform events (Minneapolis 2040 plan effective 2020 abolishing single-family zoning city-wide; Houston's persistent absence of formal zoning; Tokyo's national land-use system; Auckland Unitary Plan 2016 upzoning), the post-reform housing-completion rate and rental- price growth rate diverge from comparator metros without equivalent reform: completions accelerate and rental-price growth decelerates relative to a synthetic-control donor pool of comparable metros. The Smithian / Friedman supply-side claim is that local land-use restriction is the binding constraint on housing supply in high-demand metros, and that relaxation produces measurable supply response within 5 years.
Falsification criterion — what would disprove this
This hypothesis is considered falsified if:
SUPPORTED if both (a) the synthetic-control estimate of cumulative housing completions/permits in the 5-year post- reform window for Minneapolis and Auckland combined exceeds the synthetic-counterfactual by at least 15%, AND (b) the rental-price-growth gap (treated minus synthetic) is negative (slower growth in treated) by at least 1pp/year mean over the post-window. PARTIAL if (a) holds but (b) does not — supply responded but rents kept rising due to demand pressure exceeding supply response. REFUTED if (a) is insignificant or wrong-signed. INFORMATIVE: Houston's long- run completions-per-population series should sit visibly above a synthetic counterfactual built from comparable Sun-Belt metros.
formal test & threshold
test: minneapolis_auckland_synth_supply_response threshold: PRIMARY: cumulative_completions_treated - cumulative_completions_synthetic >= +15% AND mean_annual_rental_growth_treated - mean_annual_rental_growth_synthetic <= -1.0pp. INFORMATIVE: Houston long-run completions/pop > synthetic counterfactual.
Method
- Template
synthetic_control- Clustering
metro- Sample
- 3 countries · 2010 – 2024
- Evidence type
- causal
Synthetic control for each treated metro (Minneapolis, Auckland) against a donor pool of comparable metros without equivalent reform. Houston is treated as a descriptive permanent-no-zoning benchmark; Tokyo similarly. Pre-treatment fit is the binding constraint — Auckland is a small donor pool problem; spec is honest that a v2 should add NZ-domestic donor metros once a registered NZ publisher is available.
Data
| Variable | Source | Transform |
|---|---|---|
housing_completions_per_1000_population outcome | fred:permits_authorized_residentialtier 1 | scaled_per_1000_pop |
rental_price_index outcome | bls:cpi_rent_primary_residencetier 1 | yoy_pct_change |
rental_price_index_auckland outcome | ons:auckland_rent_indextier 1 | yoy_pct_change |
zoning_reform_event treatment | constructed:indicator = 1 in event year and after for Minneapolis (2020), Auckland (2016); 0 for comparator donor pool metrostier 5 | indicator |
metro_population_growth control | fred:metro_populationtier 1 | yoy_pct_change |
metro_real_pc_income control | fred:metro_personal_income_per_capitatier 1 | log_real_yoy |
● ready · ● pending · ● reconstruct-needed
Detailed result card
Result card — classical_zoning_relaxation_housing_supply_response_us_metros
Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded
Pre-registration
- Claim: Across a small set of identifiable zoning-reform events (Minneapolis 2040 plan effective 2020 abolishing single-family zoning city-wide; Houston's persistent absence of formal zoning; Tokyo's national land-use system; Auckland Unitary Plan 2016 upzoning), the post-reform housing-completion rate and rental- price growth rate diverge from comparator metros without equivalent reform: completions accelerate and rental-price growth decelerates relative to a synthetic-control donor pool of comparable metros. The Smithian / Friedman supply-side claim is that local land-use restriction is the binding constraint on housing supply in high-demand metros, and that relaxation produces measurable supply response within 5 years.
- Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if both (a) the synthetic-control estimate of cumulative housing completions/permits in the 5-year post- reform window for Minneapolis and Auckland combined exceeds the synthetic-counterfactual by at least 15%, AND (b) the rental-price-growth gap (treated minus synthetic) is negative (slower growth in treated) by at least 1pp/year mean over the post-window. PARTIAL if (a) holds but (b) does not — supply responded but rents kept rising due to demand pressure exceeding supply response. REFUTED if (a) is insignificant or wrong-signed. INFORMATIVE: Houston's long- run completions-per-population series should sit visibly above a synthetic counterfactual built from comparable Sun-Belt metros.
Synthetic-control estimate
- Error: no outcome variable loaded
Variables resolved
Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T09:47:44+00:00
Strongest opposing argument
Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.
Notes
Smith's "Wealth of Nations" Book I treatment of urban land rents and Friedman's broader anti-zoning instinct are the philosophical backdrop. The empirical literature (Glaeser- Gyourko, Hsieh-Moretti, Greenaway-McGrevy-Phillips on Auckland) carries the modern test. v2 should add Tokyo time-series with a registered Japanese publisher and substitute a NZ-domestic rental publisher for the placeholder.