IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·colonial_institutions_post_independence_growth

Pre-1945 colonial institutions explain a significant share of post-independence per-capita GDP variation; former colonies with settler/inclusive institutions outperform extractive-institution former colonies.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/colonial_institutions_post_independence_growth

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: AJR (2001) extractive-vs-settler binary coding by colonial power and settler-mortality threshold']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: AJR (2001) extractive-vs-settler binary coding by colonial power and settler-mortality threshold']

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 29 country or place units from 1960 to 2019, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for region and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Settler inclusive institutions indicator
What we checked
  • Log income pc cost-of-living adjusted
  • Maddison real income pc
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

6 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/colonial_institutions_post_independence_growth
1007550250196019902019USACANAUSNZLARGCHLBRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show log_gdp_pc_ppp across 29 sampled countries over 1960–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for colonial_institutions_post_independence_growth. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/colonial_institutions_post_independence_growth/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

New Institutional Economicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:44Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Pre-1945 colonial institutions explain a significant share of post-independence per-capita GDP variation; former colonies with settler/inclusive institutions outperform extractive-institution former colonies.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.

formal test & threshold
test:      Panel FE regression of log GDP per capita on settler/extractive colonial-institution dummy with region and year FE, geography controls, post-1945 independence cohorts; reject if coefficient sign reverses or |t|<1.65.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
region, year
Clustering
country
Sample
29 countries · 1960 – 2019
Evidence type
associational

Cross-country panel of post-independence GDP per capita on a binary settler-vs-extractive colonial-institution coding (Acemoglu-Johnson- Robinson legacy classification), with region fixed effects and geography controls. Period spans post-1945 independence cohorts.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_gdp_pc_ppp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
maddison_real_gdp_pc
outcome
maddison:gdppc_ppptier 3
log
settler_inclusive_institutions_indicator
treatment
constructed:AJR (2001) extractive-vs-settler binary coding by colonial power and settler-mortality thresholdtier 5
indicator
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level
polity_score
control
polity5:polity2tier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — colonial_institutions_post_independence_growth

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: AJR (2001) extractive-vs-settler binary coding by colonial power and settler-mortality threshold']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Pre-1945 colonial institutions explain a significant share of post-independence per-capita GDP variation; former colonies with settler/inclusive institutions outperform extractive-institution former colonies.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is considered falsified if the pre-registered empirical test shows the opposite direction of the claim at conventional significance (p > 0.10), or if the primary outcome measure moves less than 10% in the claimed direction across the sample. Exact thresholds will be pinned in the variables and estimator blocks when this stub is promoted from draft.
  • Falsification test: Panel FE regression of log GDP per capita on settler/extractive colonial-institution dummy with region and year FE, geography controls, post-1945 independence cohorts; reject if coefficient sign reverses or |t|<1.65.

Estimate

  • Error: no treatment variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: AJR (2001) extractive-vs-settler binary coding by colonial power and settler-mortality threshold']

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_pc_ppp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • maddison:gdppc_ppp → maddison_real_gdp_pc (outcome, publisher=maddison, n=19706)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)
  • polity5:polity2 → polity_score (controls, publisher=polity5, n=17307)

Variables missing data

  • constructed: AJR (2001) extractive-vs-settler binary coding by colonial power and settler-mortality threshold (treatment, name=settler_inclusive_institutions_indicator) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:44+00:00

Notes

Hypothesis seeded from institutionalist position-claim text (Acemoglu-Johnson-Robinson colonial-origins literature). Substantive fields filled in by automated batch; human review required before promotion to candidate/pre_registered.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.