IESET.
Hypotheses·housing·construction_permit_burden_housing_output_panel

Longer and more burdensome construction-permit processes predict lower housing-output growth after controlling for income, population growth, and interest rates.

The market mechanism is that entry and permitting frictions restrict supply response; the state-control counterclaim is that intensive permitting improves planning quality without materially constraining housing output.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/construction_permit_burden_housing_output_panel

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.CNST.KD.ZG', 'world_bank_wdi:SP.URB.GROW']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Does the housing rule being tested make homes easier to build, rent, or afford, or does it quietly reduce supply and push costs elsewhere?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.CNST.KD.ZG', 'world_bank_wdi:SP.URB.GROW']

why it matters

Housing policy affects rents, mobility, household budgets, and construction. The test looks for measurable effects rather than relying on slogans.

how the test works

It compares 41 country or place units from 2005 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Days to deal with construction permits
What we checked
  • Residential construction value added growth
  • Urban population growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/construction_permit_burden_housing_output_panel
1007550250200520132020ARGAUSAUTBELBRACANCHE
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show residential_construction_value_added_growth across 41 sampled countries over 2005–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for construction_permit_burden_housing_output_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/construction_permit_burden_housing_output_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:12Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Longer and more burdensome construction-permit processes predict lower housing-output growth after controlling for income, population growth, and interest rates. The market mechanism is that entry and permitting frictions restrict supply response; the state-control counterclaim is that intensive permitting improves planning quality without materially constraining housing output.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if days_to_deal_with_construction_permits is negative for residential_construction_value_added_growth at p<=0.10 with at least 250 observations and 25 countries. REFUTED if the coefficient is positive at p<=0.10 under the same sample floor. Otherwise PARTIAL or INCONCLUSIVE.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_construction_permit_burden_housing_output_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
41 countries · 2005 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Primary panel FE test uses log permit days. Robustness should replace the broad construction-sector outcome with dwelling completions where national or Eurostat housing-output series are available.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
residential_construction_value_added_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.CNST.KD.ZGtier 2
level
urban_population_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SP.URB.GROWtier 2
level
days_to_deal_with_construction_permits
treatment
world_bank_wdi:IC.CNST.PRMTtier 2
log
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
population_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.GROWtier 2
level
real_interest_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:FR.INR.RINRtier 2
level
regulatory_quality
control
wgi:RQ.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — construction_permit_burden_housing_output_panel

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.CNST.KD.ZG', 'world_bank_wdi:SP.URB.GROW']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Longer and more burdensome construction-permit processes predict lower housing-output growth after controlling for income, population growth, and interest rates. The market mechanism is that entry and permitting frictions restrict supply response; the state-control counterclaim is that intensive permitting improves planning quality without materially constraining housing output.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if days_to_deal_with_construction_permits is negative for residential_construction_value_added_growth at p<=0.10 with at least 250 observations and 25 countries. REFUTED if the coefficient is positive at p<=0.10 under the same sample floor. Otherwise PARTIAL or INCONCLUSIVE.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_construction_permit_burden_housing_output_panel

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.CNST.KD.ZG', 'world_bank_wdi:SP.URB.GROW']

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.GROW → population_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=16672)
  • world_bank_wdi:FR.INR.RINR → real_interest_rate (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=4694)
  • wgi:RQ.EST → regulatory_quality (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5169)

Variables missing data

  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.CNST.KD.ZG (outcome, name=residential_construction_value_added_growth) — vintage not on disk
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.URB.GROW (outcome, name=urban_population_growth) — vintage not on disk
  • world_bank_wdi:IC.CNST.PRMT (treatment, name=days_to_deal_with_construction_permits) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:12+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Built around WDI and WGI fields to keep the candidate runnable without a bespoke municipal housing dataset.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.