IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·corbyn_manifesto_capital_flight_prediction

Corbyn 2017-2019 Labour programme (rail/utility renationalisation, expanded NHS) did not produce the capital-flight or fiscal-collapse outcomes predicted by market-liberal critics in the 2017 and 2019 manifestos' IFS-modelled scenarios.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/corbyn_manifesto_capital_flight_prediction

SUPPORTED - no manifesto window shows a >2-sigma adverse GBP or gilt move

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether corbyn manifesto announcement is actually linked to better or worse portfolio capital flows uk from 2015 to 2020.

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. no manifesto window shows a >2-sigma adverse GBP or gilt move

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2015 to 2020, using a event study design, with fixed effects for date.

what was measured
What changed
  • Corbyn manifesto announcement
What we checked
  • Portfolio capital flows uk
  • Gbp usd exchange rate
  • Gilt yield 10y
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/corbyn_manifesto_capital_flight_prediction
1007550250201520182020GBR
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show portfolio_capital_flows_uk across 1 sampled countries over 2015–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for corbyn_manifesto_capital_flight_prediction. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/corbyn_manifesto_capital_flight_prediction/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Democratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z
run generated · 2026-05-17T18:10:06Z

Corbyn 2017-2019 Labour programme (rail/utility renationalisation, expanded NHS) did not produce the capital-flight or fiscal-collapse outcomes predicted by market-liberal critics in the 2017 and 2019 manifestos' IFS-modelled scenarios.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if neither manifesto-launch window (2017-05-16, 2019-11-21) shows an adverse 3-trading-day move larger than 2 pre-event standard deviations in the primary market measures: GBP/USD depreciation or 10-year gilt-yield increase. REFUTED if either launch has GBP/USD down at least 2% or 10-year gilt yield up at least 20bp over the 3-trading-day window, or if either adverse move exceeds 2 pre-event standard deviations. PARTIAL otherwise.

formal test & threshold
test:      Tight-window event study around 2017-05-16 and 2019-11-21 Labour manifesto launches on GBP, gilt yields, and FTSE All-Share, controlling for Brexit news; supported if no >2sigma adverse move in primary market measures at p<0.10 within 3-day window.

Method

Template
event_study
Fixed effects
date
Clustering
date
Sample
1 countries · 2015 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Event study around 2017 and 2019 Labour manifesto launch dates, with local BoE GBP/USD and 10-year gilt-yield vintages as the primary market outcomes. The wrapper reads daily source rows directly because the generic annual event-study runner collapses them to year level.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
portfolio_capital_flows_uk
outcome
imf:BFOAFAtier 2
log
gbp_usd_exchange_rate
outcome
boe:XUDLUSStier 1
log_yoy
gilt_yield_10y
outcome
boe:IUDMNZCtier 1
level
ftse_all_share
outcome
owid:ftse-all-sharetier 2
log_yoy
corbyn_manifesto_announcement
treatment
derived:corbyn_manifesto_datestier 4
indicator
brexit_event_window_indicator
control
derived:brexit_event_datestier 4
indicator
bank_rate
control
boe:IUMABEDRtier 1
level
vix_volatility
control
fred:VIXCLStier 1
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - corbyn_manifesto_capital_flight_prediction

Verdict: SUPPORTED - no manifesto window shows a >2-sigma adverse GBP or gilt move

Tight-Window Market Reactions

| Event | GBP/USD 3d change | GBP adverse sigma | Gilt 10y 3d bp | Gilt adverse sigma | | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | | 2017-05-16 | 0.627% | -1.09 | -6.37 | -1.82 | | 2019-11-21 | -0.031% | 0.05 | -3.15 | -0.64 |

Primary adverse gates are GBP depreciation or gilt-yield increases over the 3-trading-day window. The VIX series is loaded as a global-risk control, not a gating UK outcome.

Generated by engine/runs/corbyn_manifesto_capital_flight_prediction/replication.py at 2026-05-17T18:10:06+00:00

Notes

Stub seeded from a democratic-socialist school prediction about Corbyn 2017/2019 manifesto market reactions. Brexit-news flow concurrently dominated UK financial markets; needs human review of confound isolation in tight announcement windows.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.