IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·cotton_monopsony_state_board_vs_market

Abolition of state cotton marketing boards predicts higher output and yield growth relative to state monopsony regimes.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/cotton_monopsony_state_board_vs_market

SUPPORTED — coef=-3.993 (sign matches claim -), p=8.66e-10

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=-3.993 (sign matches claim -), p=8.66e-10

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 30 country or place units from 1970 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Policy or institution proxy
What we checked
  • Primary sectoral outcome
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/cotton_monopsony_state_board_vs_market
1007550250197019972023USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show primary_sectoral_outcome across 30 sampled countries over 1970–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for cotton_monopsony_state_board_vs_market. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/cotton_monopsony_state_board_vs_market/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:36Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Abolition of state cotton marketing boards predicts higher output and yield growth relative to state monopsony regimes.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_cotton_monopsony_state_board_vs_market
threshold: p<0.10 with pre-registered sign

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
30 countries · 1970 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Proxy-first TWFE screen; upgrade to bespoke replication when exact sector datasets are fetched.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
primary_sectoral_outcome
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.AGR.TOTL.ZStier 2
level_or_growth_proxy
policy_or_institution_proxy
treatment
constructed:1 for ZMB from 1994 onward; ZAF from 1996 onward; IND from 2002 onwardtier 5
indicator_or_level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — cotton_monopsony_state_board_vs_market

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=-3.993 (sign matches claim -), p=8.66e-10

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Abolition of state cotton marketing boards predicts higher output and yield growth relative to state monopsony regimes.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_cotton_monopsony_state_board_vs_market

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -3.993
  • Std error: 0.6392
  • p-value: 8.66e-10
  • Observations: 571, countries: 23
  • Within R²: 0.635
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS → primary_sectoral_outcome (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10968)
  • constructed: 1 for ZMB from 1994 onward; ZAF from 1996 onward; IND from 2002 onward → policy_or_institution_proxy (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=1620)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:36+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.