IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·cross_school_capital_openness_fdi_1990_2023

Capital-account openness predicts higher FDI inflows.

PARTIALengine/runs/cross_school_capital_openness_fdi_1990_2023

PARTIAL — coef=+11.57, p=0.125 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+11.57, p=0.125 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 179 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Kaopen
What we checked
  • Foreign investment
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

3 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/cross_school_capital_openness_fdi_1990_2023
1007550250199020072023ABWAGOALBAREARGARMATG
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show fdi across 179 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for cross_school_capital_openness_fdi_1990_2023. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/cross_school_capital_openness_fdi_1990_2023/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 94bc3da · 2026-05-13T10:35:46Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:37Z

Capital-account openness predicts higher FDI inflows.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported if the coefficient on kaopen has sign + and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.

formal test & threshold
test:      cross_school_capital_openness_fdi_1990_2023
threshold: sign(kaopen)=+ and p<=0.10

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
179 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
fdi
outcome
world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZStier 2
level
kaopen
treatment
chinn_ito:kaopen_index_normalizedtier 2
level
gdp_pc_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — cross_school_capital_openness_fdi_1990_2023

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+11.57, p=0.125 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Capital-account openness predicts higher FDI inflows.
  • Falsification rule: Supported if the coefficient on kaopen has sign + and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.
  • Falsification test: cross_school_capital_openness_fdi_1990_2023

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +11.57
  • Std error: 7.548
  • p-value: 0.125
  • Observations: 4644, countries: 147
  • Within R²: 0.0194
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS → fdi (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9936)
  • chinn_ito:kaopen_index_normalized → kaopen (treatment, publisher=chinn_ito, n=8340)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → gdp_pc_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:37+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

School coverage focus: austrian, classical_liberal, ordoliberal. Generated and run by scripts/promote_cross_school_next50_2026_05_12.py.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.