IESET.
Hypotheses·fiscal·cross_school_fiscal_balance_unemployment_austerity_1990_2023

Stronger fiscal balances predict higher unemployment if austerity is contractionary.

REFUTEDengine/runs/cross_school_fiscal_balance_unemployment_austerity_1990_2023

REFUTED — coef=-0.04116 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.0599

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether fiscal balance is actually linked to better or worse unemployment from 1990 to 2023.

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=-0.04116 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.0599

why it matters

This matters because fiscal claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 147 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Fiscal balance
What we checked
  • Unemployment
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/cross_school_fiscal_balance_unemployment_austerity_1990_2023
1007550250199020072023AFGAGOALBAREARGARMAUS
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show unemployment across 147 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for cross_school_fiscal_balance_unemployment_austerity_1990_2023. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/cross_school_fiscal_balance_unemployment_austerity_1990_2023/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Social Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:19Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Stronger fiscal balances predict higher unemployment if austerity is contractionary.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported if the coefficient on fiscal_balance has sign + and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.

formal test & threshold
test:      cross_school_fiscal_balance_unemployment_austerity_1990_2023
threshold: sign(fiscal_balance)=+ and p<=0.10

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
147 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
unemployment
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
fiscal_balance
treatment
world_bank_wdi:GC.NLD.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2
level
gdp_pc_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — cross_school_fiscal_balance_unemployment_austerity_1990_2023

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=-0.04116 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.0599

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Stronger fiscal balances predict higher unemployment if austerity is contractionary.
  • Falsification rule: Supported if the coefficient on fiscal_balance has sign + and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.
  • Falsification test: cross_school_fiscal_balance_unemployment_austerity_1990_2023

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.04116
  • Std error: 0.02187
  • p-value: 0.0599
  • Observations: 2888, countries: 121
  • Within R²: 0.0159
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6874)
  • world_bank_wdi:GC.NLD.TOTL.GD.ZS → fiscal_balance (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=5147)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → gdp_pc_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:19+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

School coverage focus: post_keynesian, social_democratic. Generated and run by scripts/promote_cross_school_next50_2026_05_12.py.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.