IESET.
Hypotheses·fiscal·cross_school_gov_consumption_growth_multiplier_1990_2023

Higher government consumption predicts faster GDP per-capita growth.

REFUTEDengine/runs/cross_school_gov_consumption_growth_multiplier_1990_2023

REFUTED — coef=-0.2126 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.00175

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether gov consumption is actually linked to better or worse income pc growth from 1990 to 2023.

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=-0.2126 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.00175

why it matters

This matters because fiscal claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 185 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Gov consumption
What we checked
  • Income pc growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/cross_school_gov_consumption_growth_multiplier_1990_2023
1007550250199020072023ABWAFGAGOALBAREARGARM
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show gdp_pc_growth across 185 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for cross_school_gov_consumption_growth_multiplier_1990_2023. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/cross_school_gov_consumption_growth_multiplier_1990_2023/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit b3e3070 · 2026-05-13T10:35:03Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:19Z

Higher government consumption predicts faster GDP per-capita growth.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported if the coefficient on gov_consumption has sign + and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.

formal test & threshold
test:      cross_school_gov_consumption_growth_multiplier_1990_2023
threshold: sign(gov_consumption)=+ and p<=0.10

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
185 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
gdp_pc_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
gov_consumption
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.GOVT.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — cross_school_gov_consumption_growth_multiplier_1990_2023

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=-0.2126 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.00175

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Higher government consumption predicts faster GDP per-capita growth.
  • Falsification rule: Supported if the coefficient on gov_consumption has sign + and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.
  • Falsification test: cross_school_gov_consumption_growth_multiplier_1990_2023

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.2126
  • Std error: 0.06788
  • p-value: 0.00175
  • Observations: 4560, countries: 154
  • Within R²: 0.0233
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → gdp_pc_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.GOVT.ZS → gov_consumption (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9133)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:19+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

School coverage focus: post_keynesian, new_keynesian. Generated and run by scripts/promote_cross_school_next50_2026_05_12.py.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.