IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·cross_school_regulation_employment_market_order_1990_2023

More flexible regulation predicts higher employment-to-population ratios.

PARTIALengine/runs/cross_school_regulation_employment_market_order_1990_2023

PARTIAL — coef=-0.3137, p=0.422 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether efw regulation is actually linked to better or worse employment from 1990 to 2023.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-0.3137, p=0.422 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 163 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Efw regulation
What we checked
  • Employment
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/cross_school_regulation_employment_market_order_1990_2023
1007550250199020072023AGOALBAREARGARMAUSAUT
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show employment across 163 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for cross_school_regulation_employment_market_order_1990_2023. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/cross_school_regulation_employment_market_order_1990_2023/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:33Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

More flexible regulation predicts higher employment-to-population ratios.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported if the coefficient on efw_regulation has sign + and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.

formal test & threshold
test:      cross_school_regulation_employment_market_order_1990_2023
threshold: sign(efw_regulation)=+ and p<=0.10

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
163 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
employment
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZStier 2
level
efw_regulation
treatment
fraser_efw:regulationtier 4
level
gdp_pc_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — cross_school_regulation_employment_market_order_1990_2023

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-0.3137, p=0.422 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: More flexible regulation predicts higher employment-to-population ratios.
  • Falsification rule: Supported if the coefficient on efw_regulation has sign + and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.
  • Falsification test: cross_school_regulation_employment_market_order_1990_2023

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.3137
  • Std error: 0.3906
  • p-value: 0.422
  • Observations: 4035, countries: 163
  • Within R²: 0.00808
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZS → employment (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8071)
  • fraser_efw:regulation → efw_regulation (treatment, publisher=fraser_efw, n=4718)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → gdp_pc_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:33+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

School coverage focus: classical_liberal, chicago_monetarism, ordoliberal. Generated and run by scripts/promote_cross_school_next50_2026_05_12.py.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.