IESET.
Hypotheses·institutional quality·cross_school_rule_of_law_hightech_institutional_1996_2023

Rule of law predicts higher high-tech export intensity.

PARTIALengine/runs/cross_school_rule_of_law_hightech_institutional_1996_2023

PARTIAL — coef=+0.763, p=0.695 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether wgi rl is actually linked to better or worse high tech exports from 1996 to 2023.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.763, p=0.695 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

This matters because institutional quality claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 183 country or place units from 1996 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Wgi rl
What we checked
  • High tech exports
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/cross_school_rule_of_law_hightech_institutional_1996_2023
1007550250199620102023ABWAFGAGOALBANDAREARG
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show high_tech_exports across 183 sampled countries over 1996–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for cross_school_rule_of_law_hightech_institutional_1996_2023. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/cross_school_rule_of_law_hightech_institutional_1996_2023/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 94bc3da · 2026-05-13T10:35:46Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:17Z

Rule of law predicts higher high-tech export intensity.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported if the coefficient on wgi_rl has sign + and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.

formal test & threshold
test:      cross_school_rule_of_law_hightech_institutional_1996_2023
threshold: sign(wgi_rl)=+ and p<=0.10

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
183 countries · 1996 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
high_tech_exports
outcome
world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZStier 2
level
wgi_rl
treatment
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level
gdp_pc_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — cross_school_rule_of_law_hightech_institutional_1996_2023

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.763, p=0.695 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Rule of law predicts higher high-tech export intensity.
  • Falsification rule: Supported if the coefficient on wgi_rl has sign + and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.
  • Falsification test: cross_school_rule_of_law_hightech_institutional_1996_2023

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.763
  • Std error: 1.948
  • p-value: 0.695
  • Observations: 2514, countries: 183
  • Within R²: 0.000409
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS → high_tech_exports (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=3283)
  • wgi:RL.EST → wgi_rl (treatment, publisher=wgi, n=5296)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → gdp_pc_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:17+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

School coverage focus: ordoliberal, classical_liberal. Generated and run by scripts/promote_cross_school_next50_2026_05_12.py.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.