IESET.
Hypotheses·distribution·cross_school_tax_revenue_poverty_reduction_1990_2023

Higher tax revenue shares predict lower extreme poverty.

REFUTEDengine/runs/cross_school_tax_revenue_poverty_reduction_1990_2023

REFUTED — coef=-0.3952 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.000541

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether tax revenue is actually linked to better or worse poverty from 1990 to 2023.

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=-0.3952 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.000541

why it matters

Distributional claims often sound morally clear but are empirically complex. This test asks whether the proposed channel explains real differences across places.

how the test works

It compares 139 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Tax revenue
What we checked
  • Poverty
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/cross_school_tax_revenue_poverty_reduction_1990_2023
1007550250199020072023AGOALBAREARGARMAUSAUT
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show poverty across 139 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for cross_school_tax_revenue_poverty_reduction_1990_2023. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/cross_school_tax_revenue_poverty_reduction_1990_2023/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Market Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedSocial Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:48:33Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Higher tax revenue shares predict lower extreme poverty.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported if the coefficient on tax_revenue has sign - and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.

formal test & threshold
test:      cross_school_tax_revenue_poverty_reduction_1990_2023
threshold: sign(tax_revenue)=- and p<=0.10

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
139 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
poverty
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAYtier 2
level
tax_revenue
treatment
world_bank_wdi:GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2
level
gdp_pc_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — cross_school_tax_revenue_poverty_reduction_1990_2023

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=-0.3952 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.000541

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Higher tax revenue shares predict lower extreme poverty.
  • Falsification rule: Supported if the coefficient on tax_revenue has sign - and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.
  • Falsification test: cross_school_tax_revenue_poverty_reduction_1990_2023

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.3952
  • Std error: 0.114
  • p-value: 0.000541
  • Observations: 1440, countries: 115
  • Within R²: 0.0399
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAY → poverty (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2862)
  • world_bank_wdi:GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS → tax_revenue (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=4787)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → gdp_pc_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:48:33+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

School coverage focus: social_democratic, market_socialist. Generated and run by scripts/promote_cross_school_next50_2026_05_12.py.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.