IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·cross_school_trade_openness_manufacturing_developmental_1990_2023

Trade openness predicts higher manufacturing value-added share.

PARTIALengine/runs/cross_school_trade_openness_manufacturing_developmental_1990_2023

PARTIAL — coef=+0.00842, p=0.299 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.00842, p=0.299 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 182 country or place units from 1990 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Trade open
What we checked
  • Manufacturing share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/cross_school_trade_openness_manufacturing_developmental_1990_2023
1007550250199020072023ABWAFGAGOALBAREARGARM
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show manufacturing_share across 182 sampled countries over 1990–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for cross_school_trade_openness_manufacturing_developmental_1990_2023. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/cross_school_trade_openness_manufacturing_developmental_1990_2023/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 94bc3da · 2026-05-13T10:35:46Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:37Z

Trade openness predicts higher manufacturing value-added share.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported if the coefficient on trade_open has sign + and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.

formal test & threshold
test:      cross_school_trade_openness_manufacturing_developmental_1990_2023
threshold: sign(trade_open)=+ and p<=0.10

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
182 countries · 1990 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
manufacturing_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZStier 2
level
trade_open
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
gdp_pc_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — cross_school_trade_openness_manufacturing_developmental_1990_2023

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.00842, p=0.299 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Trade openness predicts higher manufacturing value-added share.
  • Falsification rule: Supported if the coefficient on trade_open has sign + and p <= 0.10; refuted if significant in the opposite direction.
  • Falsification test: cross_school_trade_openness_manufacturing_developmental_1990_2023

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.00842
  • Std error: 0.008108
  • p-value: 0.299
  • Observations: 5062, countries: 182
  • Within R²: -0.00833
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZS → manufacturing_share (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9698)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_open (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → gdp_pc_growth (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:37+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

School coverage focus: developmentalism, classical_liberal. Generated and run by scripts/promote_cross_school_next50_2026_05_12.py.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.