Pre-registration
Following the July 2021 protests (largest mass demonstrations in Cuba since 1959), the Cuban government enacted incremental economic reforms: legalisation of small/medium private enterprises (MIPYME, August 2021), partial dual-currency unification (Tarea Ordenamiento followed through), expansion of MLC (USD-denominated) retail circuits, and adjustment of official FX rates. The descriptive pre-registered claim is that across four metrics — registered MIPYMEs, real-wage purchasing power, food-import share of supply, and net emigration outflow — the post-2021 Cuban trajectory shows (a) a measurable expansion of the private-sector formal segment, (b) continued real-wage erosion despite reforms, (c) rising food-import dependency, and (d) the largest emigration outflow in Cuban history (>500k departures cumulative 2022-2024). The hypothesis tests whether reforms partially responded to social demands without restoring real living standards.
Falsification criterion — what would disprove this
This hypothesis is considered falsified if:
Supported (descriptive pattern of "reforms-without-recovery") if at least 3 of 4 metrics meet thresholds. Refuted if only 1 or 0 metrics meet thresholds (would imply the post-2021 reforms either fully restored living standards or failed to expand even the formal-private-sector channel).
formal test & threshold
test: multi_metric_descriptive_canonical_pattern threshold: metrics_met >= 3 of 4
Method
- Template
multi_metric_checklist- Clustering
none- Sample
- 1 countries · 2018 – 2025
- Evidence type
- canonical_case_multi_metric
Single-country descriptive case; no estimator. Pattern-matching across 4 independent measurement channels substitutes for causal identification, which is infeasible given Cuba's data environment.
Data
| Variable | Source | Transform |
|---|---|---|
registered_mipymes outcome | cuba_manual:mipyme_registrationstier 4 oficina_nacional_estadistica_cuba:aec_actividadestier 3 | log_level_cumulative |
real_wage_index outcome | cuba_manual:salario_realtier 4 oficina_nacional_estadistica_cuba:salario_mediotier 3 | log_level |
food_import_share outcome | faostat:fbs_import_sharetier 2 minag_cuba:dependencia_alimentariatier 3 | pct_of_supply |
cumulative_emigration_outflow outcome | uscbp:cuban_encounterstier 1 un_desa:cuban_migrant_stocktier 2 iom:cuban_outflowstier 2 | cumulative_count |
● ready · ● pending · ● reconstruct-needed
Detailed result card
Result card — cuba_2021_protests_economic_reform_response
Verdict: inconclusive (data gaps)
Reason: 0 metrics met, 4 pending; 3 more need resolution
Pre-registered rule: SUPPORT if >= 3 of 4 metrics met; REFUTE if <= 1 met (impossible to hit support).
Counts: 0 MET · 0 NOT_MET · 4 PENDING_DATA · 0 PENDING_EVAL
Primary country: CUB
Metric-by-metric
| # | Metric | Status | Observed | Threshold | Notes |
|---|---|:---:|---:|---|---|
| 1 | mipyme_formal_sector_expansion | PENDING_DATA | | registered_MIPYMEs > 9,000 cumulative by 2024-12-31 | No usable vintage for: cuba_manual:mipyme_registrations |
| 2 | real_wage_erosion_persistent | PENDING_DATA | | real_wage_index_2024 / real_wage_index_2019 < 0.60 | No usable vintage for: cuba_manual:salario_real |
| 3 | food_import_dependency_rising | PENDING_DATA | | (food_import_share_2023_2024 average) - (food_import_share_2019_2020 average) > 0.05 | No usable vintage for: faostat:fbs_import_share |
| 4 | emigration_outflow_unprecedented | PENDING_DATA | | cumulative_emigration_2022_2024 > 600,000 | No usable vintage for: uscbp:cuban_encounters, un_desa:cuban_migrant_stock |
Claim
Following the July 2021 protests (largest mass demonstrations in Cuba since 1959), the Cuban government enacted incremental economic reforms: legalisation of small/medium private enterprises (MIPYME, August 2021), partial dual-currency unification (Tarea Ordenamiento followed through), expansion of MLC (USD-denominated) retail circuits, and adjustment of official FX rates. The descriptive pre-registered claim is that across four metrics — registered MIPYMEs, real-wage purchasing power, food-import share of supply, and net emigration outflow — the post-2021 Cuban trajectory shows (a) a measurable expansion of the private-sector formal segment, (b) continued real-wage erosion despite reforms, (c) rising food-import dependency, and (d) the largest emigration outflow in Cuban history (>500k departures cumulative 2022-2024). The hypothesis tests whether reforms partially responded to social demands without restoring real living standards.
Interpretation
Verdict is inconclusive (data gaps) — 4 metric(s) cannot be evaluated because the underlying data source is not yet in the vintages pipeline, and 0 metric(s) have data but a threshold expression the auto-evaluator does not recognise (complex conditions, discrete event counts, cross-country gaps). Close these gaps then re-run.
Steelman live concerns
See hypotheses/steelman/cuba_2021_protests_economic_reform_response.md for the strongest opposing arguments. Canonical-case multi-metric evidence is a pattern match, not a causal identification — the result card should be read as 'outcome trajectory matches the predicted pattern to degree X' rather than 'policy P caused the outcome'.
Provenance
Vintages pinned in manifest.yaml. Full per-metric diagnostics in diagnostics.json. Machine-readable results in metric_results.parquet.
Strongest opposing argument
Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.
Notes
Pure descriptive multi-metric design: Cuba's data environment makes causal identification infeasible, but the magnitudes of post-2021 changes are large enough that descriptive pattern-matching is informative. ENCOVI-equivalent surveys are absent for Cuba; substitute sources include cuba_manual hand-curated series, FAOSTAT food-balance sheets, USCBP border-encounter data for emigration measurement, and oficina_nacional_estadistica_cuba (ONEI) for MIPYME registrations.