IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·cuba_special_period_degrowth_basic_needs

Cuban post-1991 Special Period forced degrowth (real GDP per capita contracted ~35% over 1989-1993 after the Soviet bloc collapse cut off concessional sugar/oil terms) demonstrated that basic-needs provision (life expectancy, infant mortality, primary-school enrolment) can be maintained — or improved — during rapid material-throughput reduction when institutions are aligned around free universal health and education.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/cuba_special_period_degrowth_basic_needs

inconclusive — canonical basic-needs basket incomplete. v2 graded SUPPORTED on a 3-indicator favourable subset (LE/IMR/enrolment) while caloric supply collapsed ~30% (Garfield & Santana 1997) and the 1994 balsero crisis revealed mass emigration. v3 requires the canonical basket (Streeten/Sen/UNDP HDI extensions). Missing canonical inputs: P2_caloric_supply_1989_2000, P4_emigration_annual_1989_2000. FAO caloric obs in window: 0/12; emigration obs: 0/12.

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. canonical basic-needs basket incomplete.

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1989 to 2000, using a multi metric checklist design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Income per capita
  • Life expectancy at birth
  • Infant mortality rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

4 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: partial provenance.

Results

engine/runs/cuba_special_period_degrowth_basic_needs
1007550250198919952000CUB
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show gdp_per_capita across 1 sampled countries over 1989–2000.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for cuba_special_period_degrowth_basic_needs. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/cuba_special_period_degrowth_basic_needs/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Degrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if MIXEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit bae09ab · 2026-04-29T22:09:42Z

Cuban post-1991 Special Period forced degrowth (real GDP per capita contracted ~35% over 1989-1993 after the Soviet bloc collapse cut off concessional sugar/oil terms) demonstrated that basic-needs provision (life expectancy, infant mortality, primary-school enrolment) can be maintained — or improved — during rapid material-throughput reduction when institutions are aligned around free universal health and education.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive): SUPPORTED requires all four CANONICAL BASIC-NEEDS conditions: (P1) Cuban real GDP per capita contracted ≥ 25 % peak-to-trough (1989 peak vs 1991-1995 trough); (P2) FAO daily caloric supply per capita: max single-year decline from 1989 baseline ≤ 15 % AND value at 2000 ≥ 95 % of 1989 baseline; (P3) all three v2 indicators (life expectancy, infant mortality, primary enrolment) stayed within ±10 % of 1989 baseline; (P4) Cuban cumulative net emigration 1989-2000 < 5 % of 1989 population. REFUTED if P1 holds but ANY of P2/P3/P4 failed by the documented threshold. PARTIAL if exactly one of P2/P3/P4 failed by < 1.5× its threshold. INFORMATIVE: per-indicator trajectory, recovery by 2000, qualitative documented evidence on caloric collapse and balsero crisis (reported in result_card even when method-invalid). METHOD_VALID: all four canonical inputs must be on disk: WDI SP.DYN.LE00.IN + SP.DYN.IMRT.IN + SE.PRM.ENRR + NY.GDP.PCAP.KD AND faostat:food_balance_sheets daily caloric supply per capita 1989-2000 AND a Cuban annual emigration-share series 1989-2000. The current on-disk vintages have the WDI legs but NOT the FAO caloric-supply 1989-2000 leg (faostat slug only covers 2010+) NOR an annual emigration series. Verdict therefore inconclusive, not SUPPORTED on the favourable subset.

formal test & threshold
test:      cuba_special_period_canonical_basic_needs_quad_test
threshold: PRIMARY: gdp_pc_peak_to_trough_decline >= 0.25 AND max_kcal_decline_pct <= 0.15 AND kcal_2000_ratio_to_1989 >= 0.95 AND max_le_decline_pct <= 0.10 AND max_imr_rise_pct <= 0.10 AND max_enrol_decline_pct <= 0.10 AND cumulative_net_emigration_share_1989_2000 < 0.05

Method

Template
multi_metric_checklist
Clustering
none
Sample
1 countries · 1989 – 2000
Evidence type
canonical_case_multi_metric

Single-country canonical case. Pattern-match across GDP contraction magnitude and three basic-needs metrics across the 1989-2000 Special Period to test whether basic-needs provision was preserved through forced degrowth. The hand-authored replication.py implements the dual-threshold falsification rule directly (per the post_2008_oecd_growth_emissions_path canonical-example pattern); the multi_metric_checklist template declaration above is for framework metadata consistency.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
gdp_per_capita
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
—
life_expectancy_at_birth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.INtier 2
—
infant_mortality_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.IMRT.INtier 2
—
school_enrolment_primary
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SE.PRM.ENRRtier 2
—
caloric_supply_per_capita_per_day
outcome
faostat:food_balance_sheetstier 2
—
net_emigration_share
outcome
cuba_manual:emigration_share_pcttier 4
—

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Cuba Special Period basic-needs preservation — v3 honesty correction

Verdict: inconclusive — canonical basic-needs basket incomplete. v2 graded SUPPORTED on a 3-indicator favourable subset (LE/IMR/enrolment) while caloric supply collapsed ~30% (Garfield & Santana 1997) and the 1994 balsero crisis revealed mass emigration. v3 requires the canonical basket (Streeten/Sen/UNDP HDI extensions). Missing canonical inputs: P2_caloric_supply_1989_2000, P4_emigration_annual_1989_2000. FAO caloric obs in window: 0/12; emigration obs: 0/12.

Why v3 lands inconclusive

v2 graded SUPPORTED on a 3-indicator subset (LE / IMR / primary enrolment) while caveats explicitly noted that caloric supply per capita dropped ~30% from ~2,900 to ~1,800 kcal/cap/day between 1989 and 1993 (Garfield & Santana 1997 / FAO FBS) and that the 1994 balsero crisis produced ~35,000 emigration attempts in August alone. That's indicator gaming.

Canonical basic-needs literature (Streeten 1981, Sen, UNDP HDI extensions) treats food security as the primary basic need; emigration as the canonical revealed-preference welfare metric. SUPPORTED on a favourable subset while the canonical-primary indicator collapsed is not an honest affirmation.

v3 canonical basket

| Dimension | Source | On disk for 1989-2000? | |---|---|---| | GDP per capita | WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.KD | ✓ | | Caloric supply / cap / day | FAO FBS | ✗ (slug covers 2010+ only) | | Life expectancy | WDI SP.DYN.LE00.IN | ✓ | | Infant mortality | WDI SP.DYN.IMRT.IN | ✓ | | Primary enrolment | WDI SE.PRM.ENRR | ✓ | | Emigration (annual) | cuba_manual | ✗ (decade-stamp only) |

4 of 6 canonical dimensions testable; 2 are documented data gaps. Per the framework's indicator-integrity rule, omission of canonical indicators triggers METHOD_VALID failure → inconclusive, not SUPPORTED on the favourable subset.

INFORMATIVE-only v2 subset numbers (NOT a verdict)

  • gdp_pc_peak_to_trough_decline_fraction: 0.3662
  • max_le_decline_fraction: 0.0000
  • max_imr_rise_fraction: 0.0000
  • max_enrol_decline_fraction: 0.0372

Documented qualitative evidence (un-tested)

  • Caloric collapse 1989→1993: ~30% decline (Garfield & Santana 1997)
  • 1994 balsero crisis: ~35,000 attempts in August alone
  • Libreta persistence: 63% of households as of 2024

Fetcher backlog

  • faostat:food_balance_sheets full annual 1961+
  • cuba_manual emigration annual 1989-2000

Archives

v0 at ARCHIVED_v0/. v2 (3-indicator subset, SUPPORTED) at ARCHIVED_v2/.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

v3 (2026-04-27) — indicator-set integrity correction. v2 graded SUPPORTED on three "basic-needs" indicators (LE / IMR / school enrolment) while explicitly noting in caveats that caloric supply per capita dropped ~30 % during the 1989-1993 trough (Garfield & Santana 1997; FAO Food Balance Sheets) and that the 1994 balsero emigration crisis revealed mass dissatisfaction. That was indicator gaming: the canonical basic-needs literature (Streeten 1981, Sen, UNDP HDI extensions) treats food security as a primary basic need, arguably THE primary one. SUPPORTED on a favourable subset while the canonical-primary indicator collapsed is not an honest affirmation of "basic needs preserved". v3 requires the canonical basic-needs basket (food security + health + education + emigration as revealed preference) and emits inconclusive on data gap rather than SUPPORTED on the favourable subset. v0/v1/v2 all archived.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.