IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·dairy_quota_abolition_output_response

Removal of dairy production quotas predicts output expansion and price normalisation without persistent farm-income collapse.

PARTIALengine/runs/dairy_quota_abolition_output_response

PARTIAL — coef=+0.0722, p=0.507 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.0722, p=0.507 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 30 country or place units from 1980 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Policy or institution proxy
What we checked
  • Primary sectoral outcome
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/dairy_quota_abolition_output_response
1007550250198020022023USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show primary_sectoral_outcome across 30 sampled countries over 1980–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for dairy_quota_abolition_output_response. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/dairy_quota_abolition_output_response/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4467b9f · 2026-05-02T22:38:16Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:46Z

Removal of dairy production quotas predicts output expansion and price normalisation without persistent farm-income collapse.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_dairy_quota_abolition_output_response
threshold: p<0.10 with pre-registered sign

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
30 countries · 1980 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Proxy-first TWFE screen; upgrade to bespoke replication when exact sector datasets are fetched.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
primary_sectoral_outcome
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.AGR.TOTL.ZStier 2
level_or_growth_proxy
policy_or_institution_proxy
treatment
constructed:1 for CAN from 1995 onward; NZL from 1984 onward; EU from 2015 onwardtier 5
indicator_or_level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — dairy_quota_abolition_output_response

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.0722, p=0.507 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Removal of dairy production quotas predicts output expansion and price normalisation without persistent farm-income collapse.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_dairy_quota_abolition_output_response

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.0722
  • Std error: 0.1087
  • p-value: 0.507
  • Observations: 571, countries: 23
  • Within R²: 0.571
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS → primary_sectoral_outcome (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10968)
  • constructed: 1 for CAN from 1995 onward; NZL from 1984 onward; EU from 2015 onward → policy_or_institution_proxy (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=1320)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • wgi:RL.EST → rule_of_law (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:46+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.