IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·demo_australia_high_skill_migration

Australia's skill-stream-dominant immigration policy (skill stream ~60-70% of permanent migration since 1996) is associated with above-comparator gains in foreign-born tertiary share and labour-force-participation contribution.

The hypothesis predicts Australia's foreign-born employment-rate is at parity with native employment-rate (within 2pp), in contrast to many European destinations where the foreign-born employment gap exceeds 5pp.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/demo_australia_high_skill_migration

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'skill_stream_share' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether skill stream share is actually linked to better or worse foreign born native employment gap from 1996 to 2023.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. treatment 'skill_stream_share' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 15 country or place units from 1996 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Skill stream share
What we checked
  • Foreign born native employment gap
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/demo_australia_high_skill_migration
1007550250199620102023AUSNZLCANUSAGBRDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show foreign_born_native_employment_gap across 15 sampled countries over 1996–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for demo_australia_high_skill_migration. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/demo_australia_high_skill_migration/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:33Z

Australia's skill-stream-dominant immigration policy (skill stream ~60-70% of permanent migration since 1996) is associated with above-comparator gains in foreign-born tertiary share and labour-force-participation contribution. The hypothesis predicts Australia's foreign-born employment-rate is at parity with native employment-rate (within 2pp), in contrast to many European destinations where the foreign-born employment gap exceeds 5pp.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if Australia's foreign-born/native employment-rate gap is < 2pp on average 2000-2023, AND the cross-country panel shows skill-stream-share negatively correlated with the gap at p<0.05. REFUTED if Australian gap > 4pp or skill-stream coefficient insignificant/wrong-signed.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_australia_skill_stream_employment_parity
threshold: abs(aus_employment_gap) < 2.0 AND coef_skill_stream < 0 AND p < 0.05

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
15 countries · 1996 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
foreign_born_native_employment_gap
outcome
oecd:OECD.ELS.IMDtier 2
difference
skill_stream_share
treatment
constructed:AUS skill-stream share of permanent migration from DHA (Department of Home Affairs) annual program reports.tier 5
level
gdp_per_capita_ppp
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
total_migrant_share
control
un_desa:international_migrant_stocktier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — demo_australia_high_skill_migration

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'skill_stream_share' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Australia's skill-stream-dominant immigration policy (skill stream ~60-70% of permanent migration since 1996) is associated with above-comparator gains in foreign-born tertiary share and labour-force-participation contribution. The hypothesis predicts Australia's foreign-born employment-rate is at parity with native employment-rate (within 2pp), in contrast to many European destinations where the foreign-born employment gap exceeds 5pp.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if Australia's foreign-born/native employment-rate gap is < 2pp on average 2000-2023, AND the cross-country panel shows skill-stream-share negatively correlated with the gap at p<0.05. REFUTED if Australian gap > 4pp or skill-stream coefficient insignificant/wrong-signed.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_australia_skill_stream_employment_parity

Estimate

  • Error: treatment 'skill_stream_share' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Variables resolved

  • oecd:OECD.ELS.IMD,DSD_MIG@DF_MIG_EMP_EDU,1.0 → foreign_born_native_employment_gap (outcome, publisher=oecd, n=359)
  • constructed: AUS skill-stream share of permanent migration from DHA (Department of Home Affairs) annual program reports. → skill_stream_share (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=420)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → gdp_per_capita_ppp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • un_desa:international_migrant_stock → total_migrant_share (controls, publisher=un_desa, n=16)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:33+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.